Archive for March, 2009

Cirios Top Ten at Ten – 3/26/09

Thursday, March 26th, 2009

The Top Ten Stories YOU Need to Read This Morning

10. In the ongoing battle of the acronyms, Commercial Real Estate, or CRE, isn’t doing nearly as well as Cirios Real Estate, or CRE.

9. So, maybe that whole attacking AIG executives wasn’t such a good idea after all.

8. Tenant number 1 has signed up for the new World Trade Center. And, ironically, its a Chinese real estate company.

7. There’s another side to every trade, especially with this whole AIG fiasco.

6. Just $2,000 — what a deal! Oh, what? That’s the price per square foot? Ahh, nevermind.

5. Google “more layoffs” and you get, well, Google.

4. 3/4 of first time buyers think its a good time to start considering realizing the American Dream. Are you one of them?

3. 401ks — who needs ‘em?

2. After proving it’s not afraid to change the rules halfway through the game, the US government now wants to re-write the rules for the financial system. Presumably, so its easier to re-re-write them whenever it pleases.

… and the number 1 thing YOU should read this morning …

1. Now that is one product being made in China that really, really better not be defective.

Housing Perspective: February New Home Sales

Wednesday, March 25th, 2009

Homebuilders, beseiged by losses on rapidly depreciating land and record levels of inventory, are unloading unsold homes at firesale prices.

According to the Commerce Department, sales of new homes bounced 4.7% in February to an annualized pace of 337,000 from 322,000 in January. Prices slipped 18% from a year ago. Median prices now stand just over $200,000, the lowest level since — gasp! — 2003.

And while the data provided a ray of hope for builders around the country, sales are still down 41% since last year. Inventory, however, is gradually being worked off, as buyers snap up new homes at what they perceive to be great deals. The supply of new homes now sits at 12.1 months, down from 12.9 months in January.

New home sales make up just 10% of total transactions, but are considered an important barometer measuring builder activity and thus, future supply. As long as builders are still dealing with their existing inventory, and as prices to continue to fall, new construction is delayed. On the whole, this is a good thing for the economy, even though it depresses current activity since jobs and production lag as builders sit around not doing anything.

The longer builders wait, the more time the market is given to chew through unsold inventory, building a stronger base for an eventual recovery.

Cirios Top Ten at Ten – 3/25/09

Wednesday, March 25th, 2009

The Top Ten Stories YOU Need to Read This Morning

10. Just like existing homes salesNew home sales UP, prices DOWN.

9. Last week, all of Washington was “outraged” over the AIG bonuses. Apparently, now they’re over it.

8. What? Prime mortgages in trouble? It’s almost as if we saw this coming

7. Goin’ on a tax hunt (goin’ on a tax hunt) … gonna catch a big one (gonna catch a big one).

6. New housing not wanted in Alameda? Shocker.

5. US is rollin’ down the “road to hell,” according to the President of the EU.

4. “I was flying so high, and now I’m crashing down. It was greed – pure and simple.”Carlos Justo, Miami’s broker to the stars.

3. China says “No YouTube for you!

2. Lesson to be learned: Sellers, it turns out, get to pick the buyers, not the other way around.

… and the number 1 thing YOU should read this morning …

1. Remember those for 1,000 Forever Stamps you bought in 2007, bragging what a good investment they’d be as a hedge against inflation? Well, the Post Office is asking for a federal bailout … well played Master Falcon.

Cirios Top Ten at Ten – 3/24/09

Tuesday, March 24th, 2009

The Top Ten Stories YOU Need to Read This Morning

10. That pesky US dollar was getting us nowhere fast anyway.

9. Buying condos on spec — still not a good idea.

8. Gambling with your pension money, courtesy of our friends in the federal government. Thanks guys!

7. 20% of Americans can’t wait to buy a house! The other 80% aren’t buyin’ the hype.

6. So, the guys at the helm of the ship when it went down now want a new ship? And to be made captain? Maybe we just don’t get it …

5. Slowly, gas prices are creeping up again, just in time for the summer “driving season.”

4. If you bought a house in February, it’s a 50/50 bet you picked up a foreclosure.

3. Well what do you know, Bernie Madoff isn’t broke after all.

2. Shhh, can you hear it? Can you? That’s the sound of hope for the housing market in California.

… and the number 1 thing YOU should read this morning …

1. Now that’s some serious flatulence.

Housing Perspective: February Existing Home Sales

Monday, March 23rd, 2009

If you bought a house in February, it’s a 50/50 bet you picked up a foreclosure.

The National Association of Realtors released data this morning indicating almost half of all transactions last month involved a bank owned home. Sales jumped 5.1% from January, to an annualized rate of 4.72 million. Prices, however, continued to decline as first time home buyers snapped up foreclosed houses on the cheap. Prices slid 15.5% compared to last year, the second biggest drop on record, according to Bloomberg.

This price drop, however, also reflects the mix of homes being sold, not just declining property values. What the heck does that mean? Find out here.

Of note, volatility continues in the Northeast. Last month, Cirios readers will remember we pointed out that sales dropped by a whopping 14% month-over-month. In February, the Northeast saw a strong rebound, with transactions up 15.6%. So, we’re about back to where we were at the beginning of the year.

The lesson here is illustrative of the dangerous of relying on monthly data, which can be significantly impacted by short-term affects like weather or government intervention.

So, be skeptical about the resounding calls for a bottom in housing pundits are likely to glean from this one, better than expected data point. Stay tuned for next month’s release when we find out if, as the saying goes, one month does not a trend make.

Cirios Top Ten at Ten – 3/23/09

Monday, March 23rd, 2009

The Top Ten Stories YOU Need to Read This Morning

10. Another $1 trillion thrown at the financial system — this time pension funds can play too.

9. Home sales are UP … but prices are DOWN.

8. It seems like everyone wants to get back on the oil bandwagon.

7. Could the market for Jumbo loans be coming back?

6. Another great use of taxpayer funds: Buying Countrywide’s new head honcho a new pad…at the low low price of $2.6 million.

5. A novel solution to the housing slump? Hey it worked in Canada.

4. Jail for sale! Jail for sale!

3. So maybe we should pay those pesky AIG bonuses after all … I mean, those bozos who wrote the constitution were swell guys, right?.

2. China and others are pushing for a new world reserve currency. So much for saving dollars. Got gold?

… and the number 1 thing YOU should read this morning …

1. I mean, I’ve wanted to be Bruce Willis since the original Die Hard. But now I REALLY want to be Bruce Willis. Well played sir, well played.

Cirios Wire Check – 3/20/2009

Friday, March 20th, 2009

A DAILY LOOK AT THE STORIES YOU SHOULD BE READING

Real Estate

- The government is finally getting around to closely regulating mortgage brokers.

- Only about 3 years late, Moody’s is downgrading Jumbo mortgage backed securities.

- In good news, Bay Area real estate has seen a surge in buying activity, particularly activity backed by government sponsored loans.

- Unsurprisingly, the home builder industry is starting to tear itself apart from the inside out.

Finance

- What’s another $1 Trillion between friends? Saving money is over-rated anyway.

- As if AIG’s legal department didn’t have enough on its plate, the company is now getting sued by Countrywide. Another awesome use of taxpayer money.

- President Obama said he’s “stunned” by the AIG bonuses. He should really tear into the guys running the company – his own staff.

- 1 in 10 Californians aren’t working. At least traffic will be lighter on the freeways, right?

Ciriosly Funny

- Yet another reason to flock to LA Freeway chases – yeah, free money!

Keepin’ It Real Estate: Going Green on Uncle Sam’s Dime

Thursday, March 19th, 2009

This post first appeared on Minyanville.

It’s starting to make economic sense to go green.

Last summer, with gas prices topping $4 per gallon and commodities of all kinds becoming more expensive, renewable energy advocates thought their day in sun — so to speak — had finally arrived.

Investors flocked to industry leaders like First Solar (FSLR) and SunPower (SPWRA), whose stocks leapt to new highs. On July 8, 2008, renowned investor T. Boone Pickens announced an ambitious plan to wean America off its dependence on foreign oil. Later that week, crude touched an all-time high of $147.02 per barrel.

Since then, oil — along the rest of the commodity complex — has plunged, dashing hopes that renewable energy would soon be as cheap, if not cheaper, than traditional, dirty fossil fuels. But now, with the economy in free fall and Washington scrambling to boost productivity, renewable energy has been taken off life support.

Part of the recently passed $797 billion economic stimulus package gives incentives to homeowners to adopt energy-saving appliances, solar panels and other eco-friendly add-ons. Increased tax credits for qualifying expenditures can reduce tax bills by thousands of dollars a year. The catch (and there’s always a catch when the government is involved): Benefits only arrive if you shell out big bucks for pricey green gear.

Tax credits are applicable on new expenditures, and since solar-panel systems run in the tens of thousands of dollars, the 30% tax credit isn’t exactly like socking money away in the bank. Still, green construction firms and solar panel installation outfits like Akeena Solar (AKNS) are eager snatch up new business.

Before the credit crunch and the ensuing financial meltdown, Akeena had actually partnered with Comerica Bank (CMA) to offer low interest loans for buyers of new solar-energy systems, a portion of which could be backed by the value of the home. Since monthly loan payments were easier to stomach than plunking down cash to buy a new system, these new lending programs could have made solar available to the masses.

But now that home values have plummeted and lenders are reticent to part with their precious dollars, such borrowing programs are nearly impossible to find. Still, for those homeowners intrepid enough to take the plunge, tax credits offer an attractive reason to get off the green fence.

While solar power isn’t as economically efficient as traditional electricity sources, the more money that’s pumped into new technologies — even if it’s through a combination of private and public investment — the sooner we’re likely to reach the parity solar advocates have been promising for decades.

And the sooner that happens, the better.

Cirios Wire Check – 3/19/09

Thursday, March 19th, 2009

A DAILY LOOK AT THE STORIES YOU SHOULD BE READING

Real Estate

- Mortgage rates are falling because the Federal Reserve does not like a strong dollar

- Who wants to live near Jobs!?  You too have the chance to overpay for a house.

- $450,000 for a one-bedroom in Panama!? Has the world lost its mind?  Yes.

- Welcome to the apocalypse … only 4 Orange County Zip Codes have million dollar median home prices.

Finance

- Venezuela is running short on cash because their most hated enemy’s economy is in recession.  Ironic.

- Mini Hyper-Inflation … what does that mean?

- It is going to be really interesting when you have to pay for goods and services with gold instead of cash.

- Only 646,000 people lost their jobs in the last month!  Yessssssss!

Ciriosly Funny

- Finally, the nerds have taken control of the jocks.

House of the Week: No Way San Jose

Wednesday, March 18th, 2009

This week, Cirios takes you on a quick jaunt down the Peninsula to San Jose.  The home is located in a middle-class suburban neighborhood with good schools. Pay special attention to the note from the listing agent — who has clearly gone all out to inspect the property prior to putting it on the market. (click in images to enlarge)

Home prices in this area are well down from the peak, but activity is picking up, as homes become affordable again. That being said, there’s still a large number of homes on the market, rising foreclosures and property values continue to fall.

Address: 1660 Duvall Dr, San Jose, CA 95130
Status: ACTIVE
Bedrooms: 4; Bathrooms: 3
Living Area: 1,716 square feet
Lot Size: 6,324 square feet
List Date: 2/9/2009
Original List Price: $665,000
Current List Price: $634,900
Elementary School API: 861
Zip Code Sales Last 3 Months: +8%
% Homes in Foreclosure in Zip: 0.47% (Low)
% Housing Inventory For Sale in Zip: 0.61% (Moderate)

Real Estate Agent Comment: Updated home with recessed lighting, tile floors, newer counter tops, Lazy Susan in the kitchen and a dual sinks in the master suite. Not a short sale! The information is provided by others and has not been verified by the seller or listing agent.