Home Prices vs. Mortgage Rates: Let’s Dance
This post first appeared in the SPECIAL EDITION: Cirios Trends: A Decade in Flux
It stands to reason that falling interest rates leads to higher home prices. After all, for every one percent drop in mortgage rates, buyers can afford around 10% more house. Against that backdrop, the chart below makes sense: After sky-high interest rates of the late 1970s and early 1980s, a consistent decline in interest rates helped usher in an historic increase in home prices.
But, as is often the case when complex macroeconomics are at play, there’s more to the story.
In order to fully understand what on the surface seems like a relatively straightforward relationship, we need to more fully understand what moves mortgage rates, which have such a direct effect on home prices.
Since it’s creation in 1913, the Federal Reserve has been charged with overseeing our nation’s monetary policy and maintaining price stability. Chief among it’s responsibilities is to set the “Federal Funds Rate,” which in simple terms is the rate at which banks lend to one another. Virtually all other borrowing rates are pegged at some “spread” above this baseline rate, based on the perceived riskiness of the loan.
With this tool, the Fed tries to maintain the modicum of inflation it believes strikes the proper balance between economic growth and stable prices. Lower rates encourage growth but push up prices, while higher rates curtail rising prices but at the cost of retarding economic activity.
However, with the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978, Congress tacked on another mandate to the Fed’s list of tasks: “long-run economic growth.” The seeming contradiction of “stable prices” and “economic growth” is at the root of the debate over the role of the Fed in our economy.
So, using the logic laid out above, Paul Volcker and his inflation-crushing high interest rates of the 1980s should have sent home prices tumbling. Why then did home prices keep on rising during this period of high mortgage rates? Read on to find out.
Tags: economic growth, Federal Reserve, home prices, inflation, mortgage rates, spread, Volcker