In response to a thread on Bernalwood regarding Bernal Heights real estate, Cirios put together some simple data for single family home sales over the past three years. Monthly data is inherently choppy and seasonal, so we prefer to look at rolling 3-month averages. The table and graphs below help paint part of the picture of the Bernal Heights real estate market.

But what the data don’t show, and can only be known by actually being close to the market, is that sales mix,  more than true value drops are pushing average sale prices lower in Bernal. 2011 has been a wildly volatile year, and consumer sentiment and confidence has tumbled thanks for geopolitical uncertainty (Europe, Arab Spring, etc) and domestic problems, both political and economic. As a result, fewer traditional (ie, non-distressed) sellers have put their home on the market in Bernal Heights, an area with all sorts of fundamentals going for it.

It makes sense — why would they? If you don’t have to sell, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to do so in an area like Bernal. Far better to rent and hold if you need to move. Distressed sales, be they probate, short sale or bank owned are often smaller, cheaper homes, and the sales drag down averages. To wit, the few high quality, larger homes that do come on the market in Bernal typically sell above list with multiple offers.

Data makes for nice blog posts and flippant analysis, but it rarely tells the entire story.

2012 is sure to be another whacky ride in local real estate markets. And while we aren’t predicting runaway appreciation to kick in, certain cities seem poised for fundamental strength and continued improvement. These are five cities worth watching in the coming year, along with price trend graphs that shed some light into where we’ve been, where we are and where we may be going.


Redwood City (94061)
Affordable is a relative term on the Peninsula, but Redwood City is at the top of the list when affordability is crossed with desirability. With near perfect weather and proximity to job centers going for it, the only thing that has historically kept back Redwood City home prices has been mediocre schools. But with young families looking for a cheaper living option, this could change in the coming years (and decades).



Potrero Hill, San Francisco (94107)
“The Hill” as locals call it, is a suburban paradise just minutes from downtown San Francisco. Easy freeway access, quiet streets and big houses with bigger views has made Potrero one of the tightest real estate markets in the entire city. The recent price trend reflects this fact. And with the ongoing development of Mission Bay and SOMA, along with gradual improvement of the Potrero housing projects, The Hill has a lot of positive fundamentals going for it. Not to mention it’s also the location of Cirios Real Estate.



San Carlos (94070)
If you were to rank school districts in San Mateo County, then put them in reverse order according to home prices, chances are San Carlos would be at the top of the list. “Affordable” by Peninsula standards, good schools, an up-and-coming downtown and an easy commute to San Francisco and Silicon Valley, San Carlos is increasingly becoming a popular choice for buyers armed with freshly minted social media dollars.



Antioch (94509)
Ground Zero for local foreclosures, Antioch has one of the most active distressed property markets in the Bay Area. But are there enough buyers to go around? Home prices have been flat – at best – since the market bottomed in 2009, and with a weak job market and steady stream of REOs coming to market, it’s anybody’s guess when Antioch gets back on track.



Mountain View (94040)
If there is a single city at the center of current wealth creation in the Bay Area, it has to be Mountain View. Home to Google and a host of other tech companies, Mountain View is Silicon Valley’s beating pulse. Facebook, while headquartered in nearby Palo Alto, just announced plans for a spring 2012 IPO. And regardless of what you think of Facebook, social media and Web 2.0, if you don’t think that single event won’t shift Bay Area real estate markets, you aren’t paying attention.

It’s that time again … no, not Halloween, but property tax time! California real estate tax bills get mailed out every November 1st, much to the chagrin of homeowners all over the state. You may curse the cost to own property in our fair state, but your burden likely pales in comparison to these generous, high-tax paying property owners:

3000 Portola Rd., Woodside, CA
Ever wonder what 40 acres in Woodside costs, replete with your own private lake? Well the San Mateo County tax assessor believes it should cost over $70 million. Tom Siebel, whose Siebel Systems merged with Oracle in 2006, petitioned the assessor in 2008 to lower the land value of his estate, which is part of the historic Mountain Home Ranch. Based on current tax records, the appeal fell on deaf ears.
The tax bill? $880,208 per year … which is a lot.



37 Raycliff Terrace, San Francisco, CA

Purchased for a cool $29,000,000 in August 2008, this Pacific Heights estate was a mere $3.2 million teardown back in 1998. But that was before Web 2.0. The buyers were the British founders of social networking site Bebo, which was sold to AOL for $850 million in early 2008.
The tax bill? A cool $337,027 per year.

221 Park Ln., Atherton, CA
What’s $26,000,000 between friends … especially when it’s used to buy real estate in mid-2007? MLS shows the sale price at $26 million, but tax records have it at a mere $23,500,000 – almost an exact 50% haircut from its sale in 2000 at a whopping $45,000,000. The owners before that … ever hear of a little retailer called Mervyns?
The tax bill? $210,910, which is $35,000 per bathroom per year.


337 Belvedere Ave., Belvedere, CA
If you’ve ever sailed out of the Sausalito harbor into the San Francisco Bay, the mansions in Belvedere wish you safe travels as you longingly imagine the views they surely have. Also, incredibly high tax bills. At over 11,000sqft, this home sold back in 2008 for an incredible $8 million below its original list price. Prices have tumbled further since, but the owners still enjoy a tax bill worth its weight in gold.
The tax bill? $200,903.

2460 Lyon St., San Francisco, CA
Looking for that dastardly 1% to occupy? Look no further than 2460 Lyon St., the residence of California Senator Dianne Feinstein, which she and her husband bought in 2006 for $16,500,000. With easy access to the Lyon Street steps, the Senator surely spends plenty of time contemplating whether that her tax bill is worth the price of admission into one of San Francisco’s most exclusive – and often picketed – neighborhoods.
The tax bill? $197,490 … more than Feinstein’s annual salary.

In San Francisco, million dollar views are a dime a dozen. But what if you could get that view, without the price tag? We scoured the MLS to find the five best views for under $1 million. You may be surprised at what you can get, and where you can get it.

242 Bella Vista Way., Miraloma Park
Listed for $649,900, on the market for 16 days
3 beds, 1.5 baths, 1,460 sqft

Aptly named, Bella Vista Way is tucked away at the base of Mt. Davidson in a quiet neighborhood minutes from Glen Park’s main drag and BART station. The Bay Views speak for themselves, and all for less than it costs to rent a studio above your favorite taco shack in the Mission.

2155 12^th Ave., Golden Gate Heights
Listed for $788,000, on the market for 15 days.
3 beds, 2 baths, 1,461sqft

Want to check the surf from your living room or watch the sun set from the kitchen? With rates as low as they are, the monthly mortgage payment would be just over $3,000 (with 20% down). Just don’t try to go work … unless you want to hike to Muni, a cool 40 minutes on the 6 Parnassus will get you downtown.

241 Telegraph Blvd #301, Telegraph Hill
Listed for $950,000, on the market for 83 days
2 beds, 2 bath, 917 sqft

Outdoor space, with which to soak in views of bath Angel Island and Coit Tower, this condo perched on top of Telegraph Hill has it all … including a washer and dryer that is prohibited by HOA rules.

75 Deming St., Corona Heights
Listed for $999,950 (down from $1,185,000),
on the market for 135 days
2 beds, 2 baths, 1,175sqft
Bay Views galore from as close to Sutro Tower as the carcinogen-averse among us would like to be. Fully updated with downstairs expansion potential, no one seems to want this charming Corona Heights home. Could be the missing 3^rd bedroom … and just skated in under $1 million.

1785-1787 Alabama St., Bernal Heights
Listed for $1,225,000 (down from $1,299,000),
on the market for 95 days
2 units, 2/1 down and 3/1 up, 2,800 sqft total

OK, so this one is more than $1 million, but each unit is in the six figures. If you haven’t seen the downtown views from this part of North Bernal, trek up Bernal hill to get a glimpse of the San Francisco skyline like you have never seen it.

Think you can’t afford to buy a single family home in San Francisco? Think again. There are plenty of options out there … as long as you’re willing to settle, on pretty much everything.

Here are the 5 lowest priced single family homes in San Francisco, outside Bayview.

20-A Precita Ave., Bernal Heights
Listed for $265,900, on the market for 281 days.
5 beds, 2 baths, 1,606sqft
Wait, $165/sqft in Bernal? What’s not to like? Aside from no parking and the only access through a gate below the house in front, this 5-bedroom house may be the single cheapest house sold in San Francisco in recent memory. The only catch? It hasn’t sold yet.

2247 41st Ave., Outer Parkside
Listed for $299,888, on the market for 12 days
2 beds, 1 bath, 1,012sqft
Auction! On September 9th there will be a live auction held at the property at noon. The catch? Well, its an auction, there’s always a catch.

79 Manchester St., Bernal Heights
Listed for $320,000, on the market for 376 days
2 beds, 2 baths, 1,175sqft
Another Bernal beauty, this one even has views and its own street entrance! The catch? The lot is a mere 12 feet wide.

32 Lobos St., Ingleside
Listed for $340,000, on the market for 224 days
2 beds, 1 bath, 875 sqft
This compact home features not only a garage but a back yard! Appliances included. The catch? It’s a short sale, so all bets are off on whether its actually for sale.

327 Bright St., Ingleside
Listed for $356,900, on the market for 103 days
2 beds, 1 baths, 850sqft
Another garage-included house in Ingleside that’s owned by our good friends at Bank of America. The agent here is really giving it his all, great photos. The catch? No interior photos often means the inside isn’t worth seeing.

At almost $750/sqft, this recent sale in Bernal could help make the argument that Bernal Heights is approaching the realm of affordability (or non-affordability) typically reserved for Noe Valley. Almost a million dollars for a home that isn’t quite 1,400 sqft. Wow.

125 Andover St., San Francisco. Sold for $950,000 (list price $899,000) 7/8/11.

(click photo for more listing info)

This month, we focus on the best rental search engines for the San Francisco rental market. These sites rank highest in use according to managemyproperty.com, an online rental resource site. Extra bonus at the bottom for our favorite newcomer!

5. mynewplace.com
Headquartered in San Francisco, mynewplace.com was founded in 2005. With a database of over 6 million apartments, it certainly has attracted renters by the masses.  The downfall? While these listings fall outside of many prospective tenant’s price ranges, it is great for the higher end rental listings.

4. rentinsanfrancisco.com
Listed as the 4th most popular rental search engine in San Francisco, the localized website has been serving California for years. With features such as online appointment scheduling, automatic email notifications for new listings and free credit reports faxed to prospective landlords, the site is a great option for the busy professional. The downfall? Membership costs are $49 for 30 days, so it may not be suited for the casual searcher.

3. rentalguide.com
This localized website caters to the Bay Area rental needs; landlords may search for “the perfect tenant” in the renters post. Additionally, the service is updated with real time vacancies directly from the landlords. They also have a tab for roommates seeking roommates, a great option for Bay Area tenants. The downfall? The site’s listings are concentrated in higher end, luxury listings, which fall outside many prospective tenants’ price range.

2. apartments.com
Oddly enough, apartments.com isn’t headquartered in SF. Thus, there is some mild trepidation raking it as #2 on our list. This Chicago based company is one of the most popular rental sites in the Unites States. Affiliated with more than 1000 partner sites, apartments.com extracts rental listing data that far surpasses other rental sites.  The downfall? Little attention is paid to local landlords and updating vacancies lags behind more local sites.

1. craigslist.org
Craigslist first burst on the scene 1995 in San Francisco as a tool to promote events. Now, it is the “who’s who” of rental search engines. Potential tenants scour craigslist daily, hourly and minute by minute to find and compete for their next rental. With no posting fee and a simple interface, rental listings flood craigslist every day. Agents and property managers alike have used craigslist to promote and eventually rent their listings for years. Competition has tried to come in and take a sliver of this business, but craigslist is still the #1 rental search engine in San Francisco. The downfall? The number of postings each day buries listings that are just a fews days old. Thus, postings tend to repeat themselves for the “top spot”.

Up and Comer: Rentjungle.com
Rent Jungle is a simplified version of popular rental sites, pulling in active listings from around 7,000 different rental listing sites around the web.  Results can even be displayed on a map, which is extremely helpful for cities like San Francisco with tons of micro-markets. Their best feature? No pesky registration requirements when you inquire on the property. A tenant miracle! The downfall? Traffic. We hope prospective tenants find out about this site!

Dear Prospective Tenant,

Thank you for your interest in the 2-bedroom apartment I am renting for $2,500 per month. I received your application, along with 17 others, and will review them over the weekend.

Good luck!

- Your future landlord

If you’re like many tenants in San Francisco, you’ve experienced a rental market reminiscent of the “good old days” of the dot com boom when it was near-impossible find an affordable place to live in the city. From the Mission to the Marina landlords are demanding higher and higher rents. Tenants have no choice but to pay or look elsewhere for housing. Even as home sales fall and prices drop, landlords seem to make a killing.

So why is your rent so high?

Remember back to high school economics and the simple law of supply and demand. With companies like Twitter, Zynga and Salesforce actually hiring, San Francisco is one of the few economies in the country creating jobs. Competition is intense for IT employees and young savvy workers, which means salaries are rising, despite a broadly challenging job market. People with jobs need places to live, and people with higher salaries can afford to pay more rent.

The city has limited housing options and rising rents are driving tenants out of neighborhoods like the Marina, SoMa and Pac Heights. Demand is shifting south to the Mission, Bernal Heights and Potrero Hill, particularly as the social media corridor from SoMa to Palo Alto continues to develop and the Mission becomes more gentrified every day. These neighborhoods, formerly a bastion of affordability in the city, are become less so with each passing month.

A friend of Cirios advertised a room for rent on craigslist in the Lower Haight for $660 and received 158 emails within an hour of posting the ad. A 1-bedroom apartment in Potrero Hill overlooking the freeway received 60 responses within 24 hours of posting. Renting is competitive in the city, and the biggest supply-demand imbalance exists in (relatively) affordable, safe places to live.

As rent eats up a considerable amount of your paycheck, a mortgage digs further into your pockets.

If you think rents are high, realize that your landlord’s mortgage payment is still probably higher than your rent. Even though $2,500 per month for a 2-bedroom apartment in the Mission is outrageous, consider that your landlord probably paid north of $600,000 for the condo, which equates to a payment of $2,500-3,000. Pile on top of that $6,500 in annual property taxes, a couple grand in insurance and homeowners association dues (if you live in a condo or TIC). And don’t forget about money that needs to be set aside for broken water heaters, leaky roofs and other repairs.

So as you fork over the only check you write each month for housing, relax and appreciate the freedom and lack of responsibility you enjoy as a renter.

You have a $325k spending limit and want to live in the city…with parking. What on earth can you buy?

939 OFarrell St San Francisco 94115
$330,000
Western Addition
MLS# 372010
Active

This little gem is located in Endicott Court, a small community of 7 Victorians that have been divided into 14 condominiums. Open living room/kitchen and a spacious bedroom. In the living room, there’s a bay window perfect for a dining area and a built in office nook” that can be closed off while entertaining. On-site laundry is also available as an added convenience.

1817 California #307 San Francisco 94109
$325,000
Pacific Heights
MLS#: 383692
Active

Pacific Heights complex with a lush, tranquil courtyard, on-site laundry and one parking space. 3rd level unit is a one bedroom, one bath condo with small balcony.

750 Van Ness #1101 San Francisco 94102
$339,000
MLS#: 382317
Active

Corner Studio with city views. One Full bathroom. Rooftop deck with BBQ and panoramic SF views. One deeded parking space.

Like clockwork, every time the temperature hovers over 70 degrees in San Francisco, we get a serious case of Spring fever. So if you find yourself off work on one of these particularly glorious days (or have caught a ‘sudden’ cold)…we compiled the top 5 outdoor spots in SF to take in the rays.

1. Baker Beach

You probably never go here as it’s foggy and windy most of the year. Catch it on a calm, 75 degree day and you’ll feel like the people in Malibu do every day of the year.

2. Dolores Park

It may be hipster haven but it’s great for people watching and the unexpected. Plus, Bi-Rite ice cream is across the street. A win-win.

3. Fort Mason Park

The water views, public restrooms and a Safeway across the street makes for the perfect instant picnic.

4. AT&T Park

Ahhh Baseball Season. Time to start working on that sinus infection to bail on work so you can catch a day game under the warm sun.

5. Anywhere

After all, it is San Francisco. You can’t go wrong in the city dubbed as “The most beautiful city in America”. Take a look around, find a grassy knoll and relish in your city’s international appeal.