By ANDREW JEFFERY

This post first appeared on Minyanville.

Price discovery. It sounds simple enough, right? If you separate out its component parts, you have “price” — the amount buyers are willing to pay and sellers are willing to accept — and “discovery” — the uncovering of that price.

But price discovery — a term which is bandied about in all corners of the financial markets — has a meaning far deeper than this cursory analysis.

In a financial sense, it’s defined as the point at which the free market — the natural interplay between supply and demand — converge on a single point where buyers and sellers can find mutual ground. There, you have price discovery.

In a practical sense, it happens every day; each time an economic transaction occurs. Coffee at Starbucks (SBUX) costs more than, say, coffee at any other establishment on the planet, because consumers have determined they’re willing to pay a premium for it. Starbucks, for its part, has generously sprinkled its stores on street corners around the world, matching supply with this persistent demand. The price, even though most of us scoff at the mere thought of forking over more than $4 for some contrived, flavored coffee-like drink, is what the market will bear.

So why then do financial-market participants make such a big deal about “true price discovery” in trying to analyze specifically when and where markets will bottom? The key is in the definition.

Let’s examine the housing market to see why this distinction matters, and how the dynamics effecting price discovery are so important.

Homes, unlike cups of coffee, are rarely bought and sold — other than when entire neighborhoods are turned over (which seems to happen with frightening regularity). But buying or selling a home typically involves uprooting one’s family, hauling boxes across town (or across the country), switching schools, changing jobs, and otherwise disrupting the flow of life.

When talking about the housing market, most pundits and so-called experts typically focus on the demand side of the equation. How low are interest rates? Did Wells Fargo (WFC) just tighten its mortgage guidelines? Are property values increasing or decreasing? How is the job market doing? On a more personal level, getting married, having kids, changing jobs, seeking out a slower (or faster) pace of life, or looking to trade up into a better school district or bigger home can all lead buyers to jump into the market.

Sellers, on the other hand, are typically hard-pressed to sell. Many of the same circumstances (jobs, retirement, family, etc.) lead a seller to enter the market, but leaving a home and the emotional attachment therein, is an extremely difficult decision to undertake without a very compelling reason.

In the current housing downturn, as social mood has swung violently towards risk aversion and shorter time preferences, the decision to sell one’s home has effectively become that of necessity, or nothing at all. In other words, the vast majority of sellers on the market right now are forced sellers — those who don’t have any choice.

So what does this all have to do with price discovery?

The destruction of a widely held economic belief — namely, that housing prices only go up –has thrown the interplay between supply and demand out of whack. Couple that with insane leverage, abnormally low interest rates, virtually non-existent underwriting guidelines, and massive government intervention in the form of Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) that caused the recent boom, and in reality, the fundamentals of supply and demand have been wonky for years, if not decades.

As these imbalances are worked through and the weakest hands are forced to fold, markets are slowly starting to heal. And even though massive loan-modification efforts and foreclosure moratoria are once again throwing true supply and demand out of whack, the free market is a powerful force: Certain real-estate markets around the country are beginning to show signs of healthy stabilization.

Price discovery is emerging, as housing prices return to more traditional measures of affordability where buying begins to make just as much sense as renting. To be sure, there’s a fear of losing equity as prices tumble, but the emotional pull of owning a home is, and always will be, a powerful force. Other markets, however, have a very long way to go.

Since founding Cirios Real Estate, I’ve spent a dizzying amount of time looking at local housing markets in California. And in trying to identify trends on a neighborhood-by-neighborhood, street-by-street basis, I’ve found one trend that’s 100% consistent around the state. And although California is a rather unique case, I know enough about markets around the country to be confident this is true there as well.

Markets that have seen the most extreme home-price declines are the ones where owners faced massive amounts of negative equity and foreclosures ran rampant. Virtually every sale in these markets over the past 2 years has been the result of a seller being forced to sell.

On the other hand, markets where job losses have been less severe have seen prices ramp up less severely during the boom; schools are better and fundamental desirability is higher. Sellers have broadly had the luxury of holding out, hoping the market would turn before they, too, would be forced to put their home on the market.

When there are no more forced sellers in a given market — or at the very least, the proportion of forced sellers and non-forced sellers returns to more normal levels — healthy stabilization can occur. And in order for this to happen, years of froth and excess must first be worked off. This can happen via 2 methods, which Toddo often discusses when analyzing the stock market: time and price.

Time can heal wounds as demographics shift and new buyers enter a given market, or low prices can bring investors out of the woodwork to snap up underpriced homes.

There isn’t some magic formula or complex property-valuation algorithm (sorry Zillow) that can determine where a given markets is in the bottoming process or where the best real-estate investment opportunities currently lie (to be sure, they’re out there). But with careful analysis of individual markets, trends can be identified.

Submarkets where price discovery — that is, the process of returning to an environment where natural supply-demand fundamentals can thrive — is further along pose a far smaller risk than those markets where sellers have been hunkering down, hoping the maelstrom would blow over their quiet streets.

So while pundits argue over whether the housing market has “bottomed,” we can all ignore their drivel, knowing this is a meaningless statement. Price discovery doesn’t happen on a national scale; the massive and disjointed real-estate market is made up of thousands of tiny micro-markets, each of which is at a different point along the highway of price discovery.

Ask most anyone familiar with Bay Area real estate which city has more expensive homes, South San Francisco or Millbrae, and the response is likely to be unanimous. South City doesn’t exacly have the reputation for high-end real estate.

But taking a look at the graph below, during the boom, South City tracked Millbrae pretty closely, as measured by price per square foot. In fact, in 2004 then again in 2005, South City even hit the same level as its neighbor to the south.

Since the market started tumbling in 2007, the gap between the two has widened. This partly reflects the fact that South San Francisco has had a higher foreclosure rate than Millbrae, so homes in poor condition are selling at a higher clip, dragging down price per square foot. In South City we’re now back to levels not seen since 2002, but in Millbrae we’ve only reached 2004 prices.

With the new appraisal guidelines restricting buyers ability to get loans, the next few months should be very telling with respect to how the already battered housing market can continue the healing process.

Home sales in May rose from April, the second straightly monthly increase. According to the National Association of Realtors, or NAR, purchases crept up 2.4% from the prior month, which was less than 3.0% analysis were expecting.

Prices continued their decline, falling 17% from a year ago, dragged down by distressed sales.

As readers of this site know, we rarely have much good to say about the NAR. They are a lobbyist group, plain and simple, and typically put the interests of their constituents (Realtors) above that of buyers and sellers. But this month, the NAR hit the nail on the head with respect to the current home buying environment:

“The increase in sales is less than expected because poor appraisals are stalling transactions. Pending home sales indicated much stronger activity, but some contracts are falling through from faulty valuations that keep buyers from getting a loan,” and “Lenders are using appraisers who may not be familiar with a neighborhood, or who compare traditional homes with distressed and discounted sales.”

Bingo. The new appraisal rules are wreaking havoc in the mortgage market, with loans disastrously hard to get thanks to inept appraisers and appraisal management companies. Coupled with rising interest rates, this does not bode well for the nascent housing “recovery.”

This post first appeared on Minyanville.

Banks like Washington Mutual (JPM), Wachovia (WFC), and Countrywide (BAC) — along with Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) — once used mortgage underwriting guidelines that were thin at best, nonexistent at worst.

Congress, in turn, pushed for leniency for low-income borrowers and for those with spotty credit, assuring their constituencies that the American dream of home ownership would be available to all.

As a result, the housing bubble expanded — and then it burst.

But it would appear that our elected officials have yet to learn their lesson: According to the Wall Street Journal, representatives Barney Frank of Massachusetts and Anthony Weiner of New York are urging Fannie and Freddie to loosen up qualification requirements even more.

You see, Fannie and Freddie recently limited their exposure to condominiums where a high percentage of the owners were past due on their mortgages, or where many units remained unsold. Frank and Weiner claim the tighter rules are limiting condo sales, even though prices have come down to generate material buyer interest.

To wit, condos just off the Las Vegas strip can be snatched up for less than $50,000 apiece, and downtown San Diego remains surfeited with inventory, even though prices have fallen more than 50% since the market’s peak, according to MDA Dataquick.

The law of supply and demand is a beautiful thing.

A quick tour of VRBO, a vacation rental website, illustrates why snapping up Vegas condos on the cheap may not be such a great idea. The monthly loan payments may be just a few hundred dollars, but surplus supply means rents have tumbled and vacancies have soared. In coastal cities like Miami and San Diego, massive overbuilding of condo complexes will depress local real estate markets for years to come. Metrostudy, a market research firm, estimates that Miami has a more than 40-month supply of condos.

Falling prices, which can provide opportunities for savvy investors, are part of a healthy correction process. To the extent the government continues to prop up prices by transferring risk to the taxpayer, these opportunistic investors will stay on the sidelines, thereby forestalling any eventual recovery.

Looking for great schools, rolling hills, big lots and a quick BART ride to the city?

Orinda and Lafayette, two of the most desirable towns in the East Bay, have all this and much more. Home prices remain in a downward trend, to be sure, but inherent desirability and established neighborhoods should keep these two from falling off a cliff, even as their high-end brethren around the Bay Area feel the pain of an tight jumbo loan market.

The graph below shows price per square foot for homes with 1200-2500 square feet, pretty middle of the road for these areas. Once you get above 2500 sqft, you start losing your marginal price per square foot and comparisons with smaller homes start to lose meaning.

What did that mean? Read more about Price per Square foot here.

Want to find out more about these two towns? Contact Cirios Real Estate today!

(click to enlarge image)

This post first appeared on Minyanville.

It appears even the embattled homebuilding industry is getting rosy-eyed, finding enough “green shoots” of economic recovery to stick their shovels back into the ground.

In May, US builders broke ground on 17.2% more projects than in April, far exceeding analysts’ expectations. Work on new apartment buildings leaped, while single-family starts continued what’s now become a 3-month rally.

Although the aggregate figure is still well off last year’s rate, economists are breathing a sigh of relief that the worst of the housing market swoon could be behind us. Skeptics, however, are quick to point out that any recovery could be muted, as high levels of inventory, a weak labor market, and mortgage rates that just won’t seem to stay down, could forestall any recovery.

As Kenneth Simonson, chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America, told the New York Times, “There’s a real possibility [housing starts] will just stall at a low level. If the recent jump in interest rates is sustained, that could choke off buyer enthusiasm for new homes.”

For nearly 4 years, the business of building and selling homes has been, in a word, lousy. As home prices tumbled, the likes of KB Home (KBH), Toll Brothers (TOL) and Lennar (LEN) slashed prices, offered generous incentives, and otherwise bent over backwards to unload inventory. Building all but stalled, jacking up unemployment — particularly in exurbs and sprawling communities whose economies were largely based on the construction trade. An industry that grew fat during the boom was forced to slim down, lay off workers, and hibernate, while the market’s violent correction ran its course.

And although a host of small builders have closed up shop, to date, no major US homebuilder has gone under. Consolidation, too, has been scant. The only merger of note was Pulte Home’s (PHM) purchase of Centex (CTX), a marriage that, once consummated, will create the country’s largest builder.

The outlook for those builders that remain — builders that are bleeding cash while pleading with creditors to extend loan terms and waive busted covenants — is bleak. Last week, the National Association of Homebuilders/Wells Fargo Builder Sentiment Survey ticked down after rising far more than expected the month before. Higher interest rates are mostly to blame, as the specter of bigger monthly payments is quelling optimism that the housing market is on the mend.

The reality — an unfortunate one for builders and their employees — is that for the foreseeable future, their services aren’t needed in this country; we have too many homes as it is. Demand for new ones remains weak as communities just a decade old slip into disrepair, and shoddy craftsmanship and half-finished developments scare off prospective buyers.

Builders are also fouling up the nascent housing “recovery” by turning recently completed condominium units into rentals. Even as demand wanes thanks to job losses and tighter budgets, rental inventory is rising. Rents, as a result, are falling. This is great news for tenants, eager to jump on affordable apartments, but bad news for landlords and even homeowners.

One of the most popular arguments posited by housing-market-bottom callers is that in some of the hardest hit areas, prices have gotten so low that investors can scoop up cheap homes and rent them for an attractive return. What they neglect to mention, however, is that this sort of market-clearing activity also increases the supply of rental units, further pressuring home prices. Even in the worst, most washed-out areas, a bottom remains elusive.

By ANDREW JEFFERY

This post first appeared on Minyanville.

Mortgage guidelines have become increasingly strict — not to mention regimented — as the private secondary-mortgage market has all but disappeared in the past 24 months. But according to the Wall Street Journal, appraisals are increasingly becoming one of the biggest hurdles for new purchase and refinance transactions.

In the wake of the recent collapse in home prices, appraisers have come under fire for bowing to lender demands during the boom, offering up property values more aligned with lenders’ wishes than with reality. In 2007, the state of New York sued Washington Mutual — now owned by JPMorgan (JPM) — for colluding with a subsidiary of First American Corporation to overinflate home values.

Collusion between appraisers and mortgage brokers, real-estate agents, banks, and borrowers helped fuel runaway price appreciation. In response, Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) — the 2 government-owned giants that control around two-thirds of the mortgage market — issued new guidelines dictating how lenders can select and evaluate appraisals. The new policies went into effect May 1.

To help facilitate the new, tighter rules, lenders are using appraisal management companies, or AMCs, which employ networks of appraisers around the country to provide what purport to be unbiased value analysis. All this, of course, comes at a cost which is ultimately borne by borrowers.

And, in what could be considered ironic if it weren’t so repellent, appraisers are crying foul.

This from a group whose moral backbone during the housing boom most closely resembled that of a jellyfish - one seemingly incapable of preventing its members from being wooed by banks into committing fraud.

An appraisal is simply one person’s opinion of a home’s value on a given day. And although that person is licensed to provide such an opinion, the very nature of an appraisal renders its usefulness as a true risk management tool questionable at best.

The growing use of AMCs, opponents argue, reduces appraisal quality even as it increases costs. Appraisers are selected based on proprietary quality scoring mechanisms employed by each AMC, which may or may not be a good measure of reliability. And since AMCs take on average a 40% cut on the total appraisal fees and lenders demand quick turnaround, appraisers are working for less on a tighter timeline.

Sure, fraud may be reduced, but incompetence could more than make up for that as AMCs scramble to employ barely capable appraisers in order to ensure complete geographic coverage for their clients.

The real losers in all this — as is the case when poorly conceived regulation is aimed at making up for past mistakes without proper consideration for the root cause of those mistakes — are homeowners, who must now pay more for a property valuation mechanism that isn’t likely to be much better than the old one.

Below is an actual job posting from a brokerage whose stated goal is to “to provide Bay Area home buyers a unique and comprehensive resource for your home purchase process.”

The question you have to ask yourself is this: Is the person who meets these qualifications really who you want advising you on one of the biggest financial decisions in your life and helping you find the home you will live in for at least 5 years?

JOB REQUIREMENTS

• The drive, desire and effort necessary to succeed in real estate sales.
• Aggressive and consistent follow through with clients.
• An effective system to develop your own clients in addition to the clients provided by the company.
• Representation of buyers throughout the Bay Area.
• Willingness to follow company protocol and standards.
• Ethical real estate practices.

COMPENSATION:

Commissioned sales position.

—

Not a single requirement mentions looking out for the home buyer’s best interests or a willingness to put in the extra effort to ensure clients make the best home buying decision possible. In fact, if the posting were for a used-car salesman, would the requirements be any different?

What if the posting looked like this:

JOB REQUIREMENTS

• Ability and desire to offer customized advice based on an individual’s situation, enabling them to make an informed real estate decision (not necessarily a purchase).
• A background in property valuations, mortgages and real estate so you can provide assistance from loan pre-qualification through post –purchase home ownership assistance.
• Defined negotiating skills so you can help your clients get the right home at the right price.
• High personal integrity that allows you to inform clients when buying a home is not their best financial option, because our clients trust us to give them sound financial and life advice - not a sales pitch.
• Ethical real estate practices.

COMPENSATION

Fixed compensation and bonuses based on the team’s ability to help buyers find the homes that works the best for them.

Isn’t it about time we required more from real estate agents?

Cirios Verdict: DEAL

San Francisco isn’t for everyone, but with the rental market still expensive relative to just about everywhere but New York, buying a condo or TIC (Tenant in Common) is a pretty viable option. It didn’t used to be, but low-end condo and TIC prices are falling, as overbuilding, lower rents and the general economic malaise is hitting developers where it hurts. No, not there. Their pockets.

As a result, some of the smaller units in older, renovated buildings are being offered at reasonable prices. To be sure, its likely they’ll keep getting cheaper, but some are starting to get interesting.

In particular, S1 listed on the CLEAR below is a lower unit in the same building, which sold for $440,000 after being listed at $410,000. And while we believe TIC and condo prices will keep sliding in the near term, prices will be supported as they come more in line with rents in the area.

Address: 3322 16th Street #6, San Francisco, CA 94114
Status: ACTIVE
List Date: 3/31/09
List Price: $469,000
Cirios Value: $485,000
List Price vs. Cirios Value: 3.4% under-listed.
For a complete Cirios Valuation, click here for our CLEAR report, or on the image to the right.

Have a home you’d like Cirios to use for our next House of the Week?
Make a comment below or email us!

Economic data is inherently backwards looking. Forecasts, estimates and any other prediction of the future is a stab in the dark likely based on an esoteric predictive model and a bunch of educated guesses. And of all the economic phenomena, the hardest of all to predict is the cusp, the turning point.

Nevertheless, despite the cards being stacked against them, bold economists are stepping out on the proverbial limb and saying the housing market is healing and more than three years of declines are running their course. Their analysis is based on looking at history, then some extrapolation of how millions of unique economic actions, geopolitical strife, global financial markets and unpredictable political feuds will play out.

The future, as they say, is yet unwritten.

Consider these two reports, both written in the last 48 hours:

From Bloomberg: Existing Home Sales Hover Near Average. “Sales of existing US homes in March stayed near a four-month average, and prices rose from February, a sign the housing recession has stopped getting worse.”

Now, from Housing Wire: (a great place for housing-related news and analysis) Delinquencies and Defaults Up, Up and Away. “Delinquencies and defaults are on the rise, due mainly to a handful of circumstances, including the backlog from recent foreclosure moratoria, a jump in unemployment and even a slight rise in marital spats. Prime loans 60+ days delinquent increased by 69.6% from November 2008 to January 2009.”

Which data do you think is more predictive of how the housing market will perform in the future?

Existing home sales - transactions that happened 20-50 days ago, meaning contracts were signed back in January or February; or a spike in defaults which will turn into foreclosures, bank owned properties and more homes on the market later this year?

We rest our case.

DO NOT believe the hype: The housing market is still in decline, any stabilization theories are fallacy.