This post first appeared in the July edition of Cirios Trends: Getting to the Bottom of the Housing Market

This month’s spotlight shines on an oft-forgotten portion of the East Bay, San Leandro.

While San Leandro lacks the famous name of an Oakland and the semi-swankitude of a Castro Valley, its central location and amazing affordability make it worth a second look for anyone looking to buy a home for less than $600,000.

Currently listed homes in the zip code range from a small 2 bedroom fixer upper listed at $200,000 to a $1.3 million dollar home with a pool and views of San Francisco. The large majority of homes (77%) are priced $600,000, large lots are common and Chabot Regional Park is a stone’s throw away. Downtown San Leandro is a vibrant commercial area with many common outdoor events.

As can be seen in the graph below, home prices in 94577 have come down significantly since their peak in 2005. Another noteworthy aspect of the sales graph is the enormous spike in supply that occurred in late 2007. As we have explained in the past, these supply spikes always correlate with precipitous declines in prices.

On the flip side, as supply pressures ease, values tend to stabilize. Clearly, the supply trend for this area is returning to more traditional levels. Simultaneously, there seems to be some support at current price levels, meaning that the decline in prices could be leveling out.

The public school system in San Leandro isn’t anything to write home about, but the attractive affordability levels mean private schools could be an option.

And in terms of commuting to San Francisco, the 24 minute ride from the San Leandro BART is identical to the commute from the Downtown Berkeley station.

Each month we examine a single zip code, identifying micro-trends within the area to try and figure out how close (or far) that market could be from a bottom.

This month, we focus our zip code spotlight on 94618, an area on the Oakland-Berkeley border that centers on the Rockridge neighborhood of Oakland. This area encompasses a variety of smaller neighborhoods composed primarily of mid to high-end homes. The heart of 94618 is a strip of College Avenue that is packed with interesting restaurants and shops. The Rockridge BART station on College provides easy access to San Francisco and the rest of the East Bay via public transportation (the BART ride is only 20 minutes to downtown SF). Those that prefer the comfort of their own cars have easy access to Highway 24, which feeds into 580 and 980.

As can be seen on the graph below, home prices in 94618 have exploded over the past decade, with average prices for single family residences having increased by over two-and-a-half fold since 1999. Interestingly, this area has seen only very mild decreases in value in the past few years, which is a testament to its continued desirability. Average prices are down just 10% from the peak, compared to a 40% decline for the East Bay as a whole.

Current listings in the area range from $700,000 to $2,500,000. Worth noting is a continued increase in supply in the area, which can also be seen in the graph below. Specifically, since 2006, supply has been elevated above average levels.

As mentioned in last month’s Cirios Trends, monitoring supply can be an important indicator of future price trends. As such, we recommend watching this area closely for further price decreases and/or changes in supply. Eventually, when supply comes back down to historic norms, this area will remain an extremely desirable place to live for its access to San Francisco, shops and restaurants of its own and great schools.

Curious how a neighborhood you’re looking at for a potential purchase stacks up? We closely follow these trends for the entire Bay Area and our team is ready to help you through the process of buying their next home, from the decision of when and where to buy, all the way through the move and beyond.

Cirios Verdict: DEAL

Last week, elated we had finally found a Deal, Cirios posted 269 Sequoia Ave in South San Francisco is what would be our first Deal of the Deal or No Deal column.

Sadly (or happily?), the suspense was ruined the next day when the property went under contract.

This home is well-maintained and has two bathrooms, a big plus in this neighborhood, as noted last month in Cirios Trends, 2 bathrooms + South San Francisco = Desirable. Nice landscaping and a decent sized lot makes this home very desirable. Finally, it’s actually listed at the proper price, which helps explain why it only lasted a couple weeks on the market.

A small drawback is its proximity to BART (noise), but the convenience to public transportation and amenities like Trader Joe’s and Costco are a big plus.

Home price in South City have fallen almost 50% in the past few years, but this area has held up better than most. This is due to the good schools, proximity to public transportation and relative affordability when compared to suburbs like Burlingame and Millbrae. While we do foresee further depreciation in the near term, it should be moderate and prices are well supported by median incomes not too much further than where we are now.

Address: 269 Sequoia Ave., South San Francisco, CA 94080
Status: PENDING
List Date: 3/31/09
List Price: $515,000
Cirios Value: $520,000
List Price vs. Cirios Value: 0.9% under-listed.

For a complete Cirios Valuation, click here for our CLEAR report, or on the image to the right.

Have a home you’d like Cirios to use for our next House of the Week?

This post first appeared in the February 2009 edition of Cirios Trends.

Just because you don’t have a real estate license and are smart enough to know that Zillow’s Zestimates are about as accurate as the Warriors are dominant in the NBA, doesn’t mean you can’t find valuable real estate information online.

One of the most useful tools for valuing properties is Google Earth. Location still drives the value of real estate, and Google Earth makes it easy to examine a property and its surrounding area. The more research you can do from home, the fewer wasted property visits you’ll end up making.

Always analyze the following characteristics of any neighborhood:

? Lot (corner lot? back yard, front yard)
? Street (cul-de-sac, tree-lined, major artery)
? Negative Obsolescence (power lines, rail road tracks, airport flight path)
? Transportation (freeways, bus routes)
? Amenities (schools, dining, entertainment)
? Street view (house, street)
* Keep in mind the street view may be dated, so details could be different

Here’s how we use Google Earth to examine a specific property.

Property Address:
8579 Beverly Lane, Dublin, CA 94568

Lot: The house looks small, but the large lot leaves room for a possible addition in the back.

Street: The subject’s street likely gets little traffic since there is no direct access from Village Parkway (the main thoroughfare in the area.)

Negative Obsolescence: The property backs up to Village Parkway, and although there is no direct access, noise pollution could be a problem.

Transportation: Using Google Earth’s transportation option under the Layers tab, you can see the nearby public transportation routes and stations. The subject is very close to the Dublin/Pleasanton BART station as well as the 680 and 580 Freeways.

Amenities: Using the Dining option under the Layers tab, you can see Village Parkway offers options like Taco Bell & Sangam Indian Cuisine. An In-n-Out Burger is less than a mile away; this should be considered a major positive.

Street View: The street has similar looking homes that are comparable to the subject. The wall between the subject and Village Parkway is very low, which could mean more noise pollution than we might have initially thought.

Conclusion: Without stepping foot outside, we learned 8579 Beverly Lane’s neighborhood is close to 2 freeways, BART and an In-n-Out Burger. Street noise from Village Parkway, however, could be a problem. Armed with this information, you can make an informed decision about whether an on-site visit is your next step.