Posts Tagged ‘DEBT’

R.I.P. Free Credit

Tuesday, May 19th, 2009

By ANDREW JEFFERY

This post first appeared on Minyanville.

Remember the good old days? Back when you and the credit crunch were young, and only those “subprime” people over on the other side of town — you know, the ones living wildly beyond their means, dependent on credit for the very necessities of life — had to deal with the harsh reality of life without free and easy credit?

Those happier times are long since passed, as the malaise continues to seep its way up the economic spectrum. Now, even the most creditworthy consumers who haven’t missed a payment in years are seeing credit lines cut, interest rates raised and finding it increasingly difficult to get a mortgage. They’d better get used to it – the free lunch is over.

Up in Washington, where economic rationale and populist rhetoric seem to be more mutually exclusive than ever these days, the Senate is voting on a widely debated new set of rules for the credit card industry.

According to the New York Times, although the legislation doesn’t cap the rates companies like Capital One (COF) and American Express (AXP) can charge their customers, they’ll be forced to up rates more slowly — and with more disclosure — meanwhile making it tougher to impose late fees on borrowers that can’t keep up. This will reduce lenders’ earning power, not to mention their inclination to give out credit lines to questionable borrowers.

While risky borrowers will bear the brunt of late fees, over-limit charges and slashed credit lines, the well-to-do are in for the biggest shock. Banks are considering curtailing or doing away entirely with rewards programs, grace periods before interest charges kick in and accounts without annual fees. Gone are the days when paying your bills on time was a path to free credit.

The country’s biggest banks, JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) have already told Congress the new rules will force them to limit credit availability and increase fees. While this may bode well for profit margins in the near term, not so for the broader economy.

In light of the financial implosion wrought by too much debt supported by not enough real income, it’s hard to argue credit card companies shouldn’t be a bit less free-wheeling when handing out plastic. But analysts are quick to point out that paring down consumer credit will have a dastardly effect on our consumption-based economy.

For a country whose economy is two-thirds consumer spending, and whose consumer is (still) addicted to credit, the new legislation is like pumping the economy full of Xanex – everything will just slow down.

And while in the long run, less dependence on cheap and easy credit will help prevent the sorts of credit crisis like the one we’re experiencing right now, we’ll likely look back with 20/20 hindsight and say this legislation went too far, constricted credit too much. This is a shame, since before Congress even cooked up the idea of the new rules, the natural deleveraging cycle was already restricting credit on its own.

Debt isn’t in and of itself, bad. As Minyanville’s Kevin Depew wrote today, “real lending and economic activity will only improve when real savers see real value at the right level of risk. That will only occur in the short-run with vastly lower prices, or in the long run with stagnant prices and the benefit of time.” Indeed.

Credit allows a transfer of risk from those who want to take it, but can’t, to those who can take it, but need to be appropriately compensated for putting their cash on the line. This can foster healthy economic growth – when used properly.

That day will come again, but that day isn’t today.

America: Home of the (Debt) Free

Thursday, May 14th, 2009

This post first appeared on Minyanville.

Freedom is back in vogue: Americans are finally growing tired of living in the shackles of debt.

According to the Wall Street Journal, government-led efforts to jumpstart lending are being derailed by weak demand for new loans. As the recession rolls on, an increasing percentage of consumers are opting to pay with cash or (gasp) save their hard-earned money.

Initiatives like the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) aim to free up consumer credit by supporting the market for asset-backed securities. The Federal Reserve and Treasury Department hope their efforts will enable American consumers to start spending again.

During the boom, fixed-income investors snatched up bonds backed by all types of debt – credit cards, auto loans, and, of course, mortgages. High demand for these seemingly safe investments pushed down interest rates, which stretched consumers’ budgets to the brink – and beyond.

But now that investors have been badly burned by such investments, they’re shying away from the market almost entirely. Without Wall Street’s securitization machine, there’s simply nowhere to put new consumer loans.

After years of gorging on cheap credit, Americans are reverting to more responsible fiscal lifestyles. Savings are up, spending is down – which is as it should be. This is reducing the urge to borrow and thwarting Washington’s plans to pass the bailout buck down to taxpayers.

Every dollar we don’t spend or don’t borrow is another that could potentially be handed over to effectively insolvent financial firms like Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC) and American International Group (AIG), or failed automakers like General Motors (GM) and Chrysler.

That task is growing increasingly dicey, as it becomes clear that using debt to fix a system already crippled by debt is patently absurd. And even as the US government loads up on borrowing, consumers are doing the right thing: getting out of hock.

Fannie, Freddie Jump on Grenade

Thursday, October 23rd, 2008

This post first appeared on Minyanville.

For anyone wondering where the billions of dollars in worthless mortgage-backed securities will wind up, look no further: The mirror.

Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE), the formerly quasi-public, now taxpayer-owned mortgage behemoths, are stealthily sopping up the worst of the structured mortgage debt Wall Street churned out during the boom.

In a story that barely made the back pages of the nation’s newspapers, Bloomberg reports Fannie and Freddie will start purchasing $40 billion per month of “underperforming mortgage bonds.” For its part, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees the two firms, issued a statement saying it hasn’t set a specific dollar target for the initiative.

If this program is indicative of the care with which Washington plans to deploy taxpayer money to clean up the mortgage mess, we’re going to need a lot more than $700 billion.

In September, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson rationalized the seizure of Fannie and Freddie by saying, “It’s very possible for not only the taxpayer not to be hurt or to make money, but for the shareholders to have some value restored to them.” It’s unclear how targeting the worst quality assets on the market will achieve this end.

The initiative — which is outside the scope of the recently announced bailout plan — intends to bring liquidity to the frozen mortgage markets. Regulators hope the effect will be lower rates on new mortgages, softening the blow of tumbling home prices.

Policy-makers are desperate to find ways to make buying a house easier, as banks continue to tighten lending requirements to shield themselves from further losses. From big banks like JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) to small, regional players like Gateway Bank in San Francisco, lenders are making it harder to take out mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and just about every other type of consumer debt.

The inevitable regulatory reaction in the coming years is likely to make getting a mortgage even harder.

Coupled with the growing belief in Washington that freezing the foreclosure process is necessary to stem the tide of repossessions decimating communities across the country, mortgage rates aren’t likely to fall any time soon.