Economic data is inherently backwards looking. Forecasts, estimates and any other prediction of the future is a stab in the dark likely based on an esoteric predictive model and a bunch of educated guesses. And of all the economic phenomena, the hardest of all to predict is the cusp, the turning point.

Nevertheless, despite the cards being stacked against them, bold economists are stepping out on the proverbial limb and saying the housing market is healing and more than three years of declines are running their course. Their analysis is based on looking at history, then some extrapolation of how millions of unique economic actions, geopolitical strife, global financial markets and unpredictable political feuds will play out.

The future, as they say, is yet unwritten.

Consider these two reports, both written in the last 48 hours:

From Bloomberg: Existing Home Sales Hover Near Average. “Sales of existing US homes in March stayed near a four-month average, and prices rose from February, a sign the housing recession has stopped getting worse.”

Now, from Housing Wire: (a great place for housing-related news and analysis) Delinquencies and Defaults Up, Up and Away. “Delinquencies and defaults are on the rise, due mainly to a handful of circumstances, including the backlog from recent foreclosure moratoria, a jump in unemployment and even a slight rise in marital spats. Prime loans 60+ days delinquent increased by 69.6% from November 2008 to January 2009.”

Which data do you think is more predictive of how the housing market will perform in the future?

Existing home sales - transactions that happened 20-50 days ago, meaning contracts were signed back in January or February; or a spike in defaults which will turn into foreclosures, bank owned properties and more homes on the market later this year?

We rest our case.

DO NOT believe the hype: The housing market is still in decline, any stabilization theories are fallacy.