It’s been a long time since the housing market has set a record that wasn’t something like, “Worst since…,” “Biggest decline since…,” or “….since the Great Depression.” The Commerce Department reported today that sales of new homes leapt in June, up 11% from May. According to Bloomberg, the figure marks the biggest monthly gain since 2001.

Sales outpaced analysis expectations, and shares of US Homebuilders climbed in kind. Ryland Homes, Lennar, Toll Brothers and Pulte Home all posted strong gains on the day.

Some analysts are making bold statements 3 straight months of positive housing data.

“We’re barely past the housing bottom, this thing is still fragile. It’s premature not premature to talk about home prices bottoming — it’s somewhere in the next three to six months. There is a light at the end of the tunnel,”

said the chief economist at Deutsche Banks, Joseph LaVorgna.

Back on planet earth, readers of this site  know that saying something like “home prices bottoming” is a meaningless statement. Even as the hardest hit markets grope for a bottom as investors step in to take advantage of mispriced homes, many high-end markets are still in freefall. This dynamic will continue until well-to-do markets experience the same price discovery as have their lower priced brethren.

All in good time.

This post first appeared on Minyanville.

I came upon an interesting report out from Deutsche Bank on the effect high gas prices are having on home prices. Below are some highlights:

• Gas prices are up 167% in the last five years, 32% in the last year.
• Monthly gas expenditure is up to $519 in June ’08 from $173 in June ’02.
• $54,000 in home price purchasing power has been lost in the last five years; $22,000 in the last year alone (Inland Empire, CA is the worst at 46% lost in the last five years).
• As measured by increased monthly expenses and translated into mortgage payment terms, the impact of rising gas prices is equivalent to a 2.47% increase in mortgage rates over the last five years; 0.98% in the last year (Inland Empire is again the worst at a 4.35% effective increase over five years).
• Deutsche sees non-bubble areas like Texas and the South more exposed to gas price increases than bubble states, due to long commute distances and low relative home prices.
• Homebuilders are being negatively effected by this trend, particularly in developments far away from the city center.
• Builders will likely switch strategies and focus on urban “infill” and closer-in townhome projects.
• According to Deutsche, Meritage Homes (MTH), Ryland (RYL) and Lennar (LEN) have the most exposure to highly impacted areas; MDC Holdings (MDC), NVR (NVR) and Toll Brothers (TOL) have the lowest exposure.