The former Goldman Sachs employees — err, the federal government — have decided to bail out Fannie and Freddie and the race to call another bottom in equities, not to mention housing, is on.

Reality, however, is not a friend of these hopeful bulls.

Let’s take a quick scan of the economic landscape and see what issues the latest bailout has solved.

• - The unemployment rate seems to only be going up, and unless the new federal agency charged with keeping tabs on the two mortgage giants is hiring en masse, there won’t be much of a change here.
• - The dollar could see its recent rally erased after our trading partners and investors around the world come to terms with the $200 billion the Treasury department just dumped into the blender to cut 50 bps off mortgage rates. And, take note, those are prime, Agency rates, and that’s it.
• - The unfortunate reality is that most Americans are still in debt and cannot afford a down payment on a house, a requirement that’s yet to be removed.
• - Gas prices have fallen, but not by as much as crude prices. Hurricane season is alive and well, threatening most of the gulf oil rigs. Oil companies are already under pressure from tumultuous markets for their black gold and are not likely inclined to lower prices further.

As painful as it is to admit, Fannie and Freddie probably needed to be bailed out to keep the entire financial market from collapsing but it doesn’t mean we are at “the bottom.”

It takes awhile for a fundamental shift in lending to play its way out and that is what we are in the middle of. The middle class is being squeezed more than ever and consumer credit quality on the whole is not going to start improving tomorrow.

More important than any of these points is we do not know what our friends at the government are going to do with Fannie and Fredie and how long it is going to take them to do it. In fact, trusting the very folks who ran these companies into the ground — albeit under different leadership — to turn them around is hardly a comforting proposition.

In the end, we need to remember that you need a good credit score and a down payment to buy a house in the real world. So no matter what a television analyst on TV who makes $500,000 a year tells you, this credit crisis is far from over.

Cirios Real Estate

Washington’s war on foreclosures, the latest in a string of sycophantic attempts to sway public opinion back in the favor of the very regulators that turned a blind eye to rampant irresponsible lending, is now being waged with carefully crafted press releases.

In the past two days, strikingly contradictory reports have emerged over the status of mortgage servicers’ efforts to stem the rising tide of foreclosures.

According to MortgageDaily.com, HOPE NOW is out with data showing it’s successfully preventing thousands of foreclosures. The servicing collective claims it prevented 170,000 foreclosures in May alone, and that almost 2 million repossessions have been averted since the program launched a year ago.

Consumer groups, on the other hand, aren’t so sure. Paul Jackson’s Housing Wire reports the California Reinvestment Coalition (CRC), advocates for low-income communities, says servicers are failing to keep troubled borrowers in their homes.

Jackson aptly points out that while both sides are engaged in an active public relations battle, what’s clear is that public perception about homeownership and lending practices is changing.

Irrespective of the data HOPE NOW or groups like the CRC gather and disseminate, defaults and the massive logistics required to work out the resulting situations have overwhelmed the loan servicing industry. No amount of government handouts, working groups or contrived federal lending facilities can contain the avalanche of home repossessions that’s already started down the hill.

Click here for details on this House of the Day.

Value: $350,000
Projection: Depreciating

The subject property is located in Orange County, which is experiencing a slump in the local economy due to the collapse of the mortgage market. In addition, the subject should expect to see further declines in value because it has only one bathroom.

You will notice we often mention property’s with only one bathroom negatively. In a market flush with supply of homes, prospective buyers will be much more attracted to homes with more than one bathroom. Thus, we believe one bathrooms homes are at an extreme disadvantage and must be priced much more aggressively to sell. From our research, this fact is overlooked by most brokers and as a result one bathroom homes are typically over listed.

10301 MacDuff St, a superior home, sold for $370,000 in April. Due to the fact that the property has only one bathroom, coupled with the weak economy and rising fuel prices, we don’t see strong demand for this type of property. Most listings in the area are substantially higher than our subject’s estimated value, and we expect those homes to sell below the listing price.

We value the subject property at $350,000 and expect it to see declines in the coming months.

Below are some details on the Fed’s proposed new mortgage rules courtesy of Briefing.com:

• New final mortgage rules ban prepayment penalties if payment can rise in first 4 years.
• New rules create category of ‘higher-priced mortgages’ including virtually all subprime loans.
• Lenders must verify repayment ability from income, non-home assets for higher-priced mortgages.
• Lenders must assess repayment ability on highest scheduled payment in first 7 years of mortgage.
• Lenders must establish property tax, insurance escrow on higher-priced first-lien mortgages.
• Lenders may offer borrowers opportunity to cancel escrow account after one year.
• Creditors must provide estimate of mortgage costs, payment schedule,within 3 days of application

If mortgage regulators can enforce their new rules on “higher-priced mortgages,” at least as well as they do for “high-cost mortgages,” (which they actually do surprisingly well) this new category of home loan means one thing: don’t bother applying for a mortgage unless you have nearly spotless credit and money in the bank.

And while many would argue this is a much needed change in the mortgage market, it does raise a few questions:

• Won’t this further increase demand for rental units?
• Won’t this force people to save if they want to own a home?
• Isn’t money saved different than money spent?
• Where was this legislation in 2006, at the height of the boom, even when regulators knew what was going on?
• Why do regulators seem to focus so much on making new rules, rather than enforcing the old ones?
• If the mortgage market figured out how to get around the old, “high cost loan” limitations, won’t it eventually work its way around these as well?

Click here for details on this House of the Day

Value: $120,000
Projection: Depreciating

Stockton is arguably the most publicized declining real estate market in the United States. Foreclosure and REO (Real Estate Owner, or Bank Owned) activity is very high, and values have declined precipitously in the past 12 months. The subject’s neighborhood itself is aging, with many new developments in the vicinity providing an alternative to these older homes.

The subject property has not been immune to these declines and is further hampered by its location on a major four-lane street on the Northeast side of the city. This section of the city is dominated by 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom properties, compared to the property’s 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths.

1901 Bradford Ave sold in January for $105,000, but is inferior to the subject based on its smaller lot and one fewer bedrooms. 1220 Sycamore St sold in April for $150,000 but is superior to the subject based on location and curb appeal.

1240 Wilson St is currently listed at $109,900 but is inferior to the subject based on its larger lot size.

The subject has bars and windows on its doors, reducing curb appeal and forcing us to be more conservative than normal. We value the property at $120,000 to reflect a middle ground between the two sales listed above, erring on the side of caution.