This post first appeared in the April edition of: Cirios Trends: In Search of Real Estate Opportunities.

For 12 months now, the Case Shiller Home Price Index – the most widely watched home price indicator – has been hinting that the housing market has at the very least stopped getting worse. In February’s Cirios Trends, we examined housing’s relationship to the stock market and how last April’s nadir coincided with lows in equities. (For more on home prices and stocks, flip to the charts in the back of this month’s issue for some interesting graphical analysis.)

But back to the data. This month we also received two more signs that the economy, at least on paper, is doing a bit better. First, last week’s employment report showed a meaningful jump in non-farm payrolls for the first time since the recession began. Second, that same Case Shiller Index registered a year-over-year change of nil, the first time prices didn’t slip from the previous year in more than four years.

And looking below at the state of office vacancies, despite hitting the highest level since the 1990s, the rate at which office space is going dark appears to be slowing.

So is that it, are we out of the woods? Not exactly.

Data is easily manipulated and subject to bias, even when its collectors have the best intentions. Let’s look at Case Shiller and dig into just what the data tell us.

Case Shiller looks at paired sales to determine home price changes. In other words, researchers compare sale prices of individual homes in a given month to the last time that house sold. Add in a bit of statistical wizardry and you have a pretty good metric for home price changes over time.

Case Shiller is also considered a value-weighted measure, as it weighs more expensive homes more heavily than cheaper ones. This makes some sense, since otherwise the relatively small number of high priced sales would get lost in the mix.

The implications of this is that an increase in the Case Shiller Home Price Index could either indicate true appreciation, or a shift in data where if more higher priced homes started selling, prices would look like they were rising when in fact, it was something else entirely.

Case in point: Livermore, CA – one of the cities we highlight in this month’s Talking Charts. By measuring price per square foot, which we use as a broad proxy of value, it appears that prices have flat lined for the past 12 months or so. Meanwhile, looking at median prices (a metric commonly used by the National Association of Realtors), prices are up 13.4% in the past 12 months. Quite a difference.

As we edge forward, keep in mind that there is more going on underneath the data than it appears. Always look at trends on as defined a level as possible. Look at cities not countries, zip codes not cities, neighborhoods not cities. Only by drilling deep into the data will it truly help you make better real estate decisions.

This post first appeared in the March edition of: Cirios Trends: In Search of Real Estate Opportunities.

Last month, we discussed the role confidence plays in the housing market. The better Americans feel about the economy (using the stock market as a barometer of the country’s economic fortunes), the more likely they are to go out and buy a house.

Sticking with the theme of market psychology, let’s now examine the other side of the transaction: Sellers.

In today’s market, sellers basically fall into two categories: Those who can, and those who can’t. In other words, if you still have equity, you can sell. If you are underwater on your house, you can’t.

The decision for the latter of whether to sell is, unfortunately, pretty simple. So let’s consider the former, those fortunate homeowners who still have equity left in their homes.

Selling into a weak market is a drag. With so many homes to choose from, buyers can drive a hard bargain. And thanks to unrealistic expectations and bad advice from Realtors trying to win clients with lofty promises, thousands of sellers over-listed their homes and subsequently chased the market down throughout 2007, 2008 and 2009.

Very few voluntary sellers dipped their toes into the market because it was just so bad. The only true sellers were those who had to sell for some reason or another.

So what now? Housing isn’t nearly as bad as it was this time last year, and in many markets the worst of the price declines are likely over. Stocks rallied fiercely last year, rebuilding many damaged nest eggs. And even though there are looming threats out there to our nascent – and very governmentally influenced – economic recovery, things are not nearly as dire as they once were.

We wrote back in May 2009 that “Willing and able buyers are pouring back into the market. And as they do, sellers – buoyed by newfound confidence – are prepping their homes for the market.” Although inventory remained constrained throughout 2009, the percentage of distressed sales relative to regular sales is slowly dropping.

Recent data is seeping out that supports our view, and the trend is picking up steam so far in 2010. The graph below, courtesy of SocketSite, shows active listed inventory in the city of San Francisco. Notably, the black line representing 2010 has reached to the orange 2008 line … and check out that slope!

Anecdotal evidence supports the data. Sellers are trying to get in ahead of the summer buyer season, particularly with the (latest) expiration of the homebuyer tax credit just around the corner in June.

While we at Cirios are constructive about real estate investment opportunities, we remain cautious. A backlog of eager sellers is one of a host of factors that looms on the horizon.

If you were a seller, what would you do?