Sales of new homes dropped in May, surprising analysis who had expected a continued strengthening in US housing market data. According to Bloomberg, transactions fell 0.6% from April, but median prices decreased by just 3.4% from last year. This compares to a much bigger 17% year-over-year decline in existing home prices, as reported yesterday.

Data indicate that prices in the new home market are stabilizing, even as sales remain anemic. This is partly due to the fact that builders, having won reprieves from their lenders and extensions of credit agreements, have been unwilling to further discount prices and offer incentives to buyers. Uncle Sam took care of that, thank you very much, with generous tax rebates to first time buyers of newly constructed homes.

Indeed, upping that figure to $15,000 from $8,000 and doing away with income restrictions is now on the table.

As the government encourages more and more families to jump back into the housing market, it will increasingly seem like a great time to buy. And while some area are showing signs of returning to more healthy market behavior, the vast majority of markets are still trending downward. Opportunities are emerging, to be sure, but only to the savvy and well-informed buyer.

Interested in becoming one of those savvy and well-informed buyers? We are here to help.

This post first appeared on Minyanville.

It appears even the embattled homebuilding industry is getting rosy-eyed, finding enough “green shoots” of economic recovery to stick their shovels back into the ground.

In May, US builders broke ground on 17.2% more projects than in April, far exceeding analysts’ expectations. Work on new apartment buildings leaped, while single-family starts continued what’s now become a 3-month rally.

Although the aggregate figure is still well off last year’s rate, economists are breathing a sigh of relief that the worst of the housing market swoon could be behind us. Skeptics, however, are quick to point out that any recovery could be muted, as high levels of inventory, a weak labor market, and mortgage rates that just won’t seem to stay down, could forestall any recovery.

As Kenneth Simonson, chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America, told the New York Times, “There’s a real possibility [housing starts] will just stall at a low level. If the recent jump in interest rates is sustained, that could choke off buyer enthusiasm for new homes.”

For nearly 4 years, the business of building and selling homes has been, in a word, lousy. As home prices tumbled, the likes of KB Home (KBH), Toll Brothers (TOL) and Lennar (LEN) slashed prices, offered generous incentives, and otherwise bent over backwards to unload inventory. Building all but stalled, jacking up unemployment — particularly in exurbs and sprawling communities whose economies were largely based on the construction trade. An industry that grew fat during the boom was forced to slim down, lay off workers, and hibernate, while the market’s violent correction ran its course.

And although a host of small builders have closed up shop, to date, no major US homebuilder has gone under. Consolidation, too, has been scant. The only merger of note was Pulte Home’s (PHM) purchase of Centex (CTX), a marriage that, once consummated, will create the country’s largest builder.

The outlook for those builders that remain — builders that are bleeding cash while pleading with creditors to extend loan terms and waive busted covenants — is bleak. Last week, the National Association of Homebuilders/Wells Fargo Builder Sentiment Survey ticked down after rising far more than expected the month before. Higher interest rates are mostly to blame, as the specter of bigger monthly payments is quelling optimism that the housing market is on the mend.

The reality — an unfortunate one for builders and their employees — is that for the foreseeable future, their services aren’t needed in this country; we have too many homes as it is. Demand for new ones remains weak as communities just a decade old slip into disrepair, and shoddy craftsmanship and half-finished developments scare off prospective buyers.

Builders are also fouling up the nascent housing “recovery” by turning recently completed condominium units into rentals. Even as demand wanes thanks to job losses and tighter budgets, rental inventory is rising. Rents, as a result, are falling. This is great news for tenants, eager to jump on affordable apartments, but bad news for landlords and even homeowners.

One of the most popular arguments posited by housing-market-bottom callers is that in some of the hardest hit areas, prices have gotten so low that investors can scoop up cheap homes and rent them for an attractive return. What they neglect to mention, however, is that this sort of market-clearing activity also increases the supply of rental units, further pressuring home prices. Even in the worst, most washed-out areas, a bottom remains elusive.

Homebuilders remain cautious, as rising mortgage rates and persistent unemployment weighed on hopes for a speedy recovery in the battered housing market. Today’s National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of builder confidence fell to 15, down from 16 last month, according to Bloomberg. Analysts expected the reading to come in at 17.

The NAHB chief economist, David Crowe said “The housing market continues to bump along trying to find a bottom. Builders are taking their cue from consumers, who remain uncertain about the economy and their own situation.”

As discussed at length here at Cirios, buyers should largely ignore calls in the media and real estate industry for a housing market “bottom.” Markets do not bottom at once, so a bottom in nationwide housing data will mean little for individual markets. At Cirios we do street-level, house by house analysis to identify micro-trends within local housing markets — have a question about your market?

Contact us today for a free consultation!

By ANDREW JEFFERY

This post first appeared on Minyanville.

Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water… Subprime lending has come roaring back.

But this time, reckless financial innovation isn’t being hatched on Wall Street. Instead, state governments are angling to “monetize” first-time homebuyer tax credits so borrowers can purchase homes with little or no money down.

If this sounds eerily similar to the type of lending practices that got us into this mess, well, it should.

The federal government, as part of the recently passed economic stimulus package, will refund first-time homebuyers up to $8,000 if they meet certain eligibility requirements. The program is frequently cited as one of the myriad reasons a bottom in the housing market is imminent.

Critics, however, argue that rebates don’t end up in a buyer’s pockets until his or her 2009 tax returns are filed - even though rebates are credits, not just deductions.

Homebuilders like Pulte Home (PHM), Lennar (LEN) and KB Home (KBH), along with their lobbying arm, the National Association of Homebuilders, have thrown their full weight behind the rebate program, but say it still doesn’t go far enough.

In an effort to boost home buying — even for marginally qualified borrowers — a number of states are finding creative ways to advance the tax credit to buyers on the day they get their new keys, rather than having to wait for next year’s refund check. This allows buyers to pay for things like closing costs, mortgage points - or even the down payment.

States are employing schemes whereby they offer prospective buyers low or no-interest loans for the amount of the tax credit, due upon of receipt of their money from Uncle Sam. If the borrower doesn’t make good, the loan becomes a junior lien on the property, with an interest rate that is far from usurious - usually just a bit over the prime lending rate.

Missouri was the first state to launch such a program, and has since been joined by Delaware, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and others. States are even lobbying the IRS to deposit the refunds directly to the states, rather than to the home buyers, in order to circumvent non-payment. The IRS, for its part, “is reviewing” this idea.

In Washington, the state Housing Finance Commission runs a tax credit bridge-loan program, which it hopes will grow in the coming months. Not surprisingly, local real-estate professionals are behind the initiative. Washington Association of Realtors president Bill Riley told the San Francisco Chronicle he believes around half of would-be first-time buyers in his state “cannot save enough money for the down payment and closing costs.”

Exactly. That’s the point. This is precisely what differentiates a “would-be” home buyer and a home buyer. And that’s the way it should be.

If the federal government wants to subsidize home ownership, fine. It’s already proven unwilling to learn the lessons of Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) about the costs of jamming borrowers into homes they can’t afford. But these rebates should at least be limited to borrowers that meet even the most modest requirements to buy a home in a responsible manner.

The Federal Housing Administration — another vehicle for government-backed mortgages where taxpayers bear all the risk — gives out loans that require borrowers to post a meager 3% down payment. If a “would-be” homeowner cannot scrape together this amount of cash, that person should rent and save their pennies. They should not receive a no-interest loan from the state government. This is not discrimination, this is not redlining, its common sense.

In a rush to prop up home prices and delay the ultimate day of reckoning for the vast majority of US real-estate markets, the federal government — and now state governments as well — insist on coercing taxpayers to over-leverage themselves and take on a debt burden they cannot truly afford.

From the looks of it, Washington is leading by example.

If you bought a house in February, it’s a 50/50 bet you picked up a foreclosure.

The National Association of Realtors released data this morning indicating almost half of all transactions last month involved a bank owned home. Sales jumped 5.1% from January, to an annualized rate of 4.72 million. Prices, however, continued to decline as first time home buyers snapped up foreclosed houses on the cheap. Prices slid 15.5% compared to last year, the second biggest drop on record, according to Bloomberg.

This price drop, however, also reflects the mix of homes being sold, not just declining property values. What the heck does that mean? Find out here.

Of note, volatility continues in the Northeast. Last month, Cirios readers will remember we pointed out that sales dropped by a whopping 14% month-over-month. In February, the Northeast saw a strong rebound, with transactions up 15.6%. So, we’re about back to where we were at the beginning of the year.

The lesson here is illustrative of the dangerous of relying on monthly data, which can be significantly impacted by short-term affects like weather or government intervention.

So, be skeptical about the resounding calls for a bottom in housing pundits are likely to glean from this one, better than expected data point. Stay tuned for next month’s release when we find out if, as the saying goes, one month does not a trend make.

Conditions in the world of building new homes remains poor to quite poor. The National Association of Homebuilders (or NAHB), the industry lobbyist group, released its monthly builder confidence index this morning, which registered a near-record low reading of 9. Sentiment was unchanged from last month, which matched analysts expectations.

The builder group is hopeful the market loosens up in the coming months, ending almost 4 years of rotten building conditions. Likewise, I am hopeful to find a bag full of money on the streets of San Francisco, somehow passed over by the swarms of transient, unemployed investment bankers scrounging Market Street for scraps, ending almost 4 years of rotten personal financial conditions.

The NAHB also made the bold statement that they believe the housing market will bottom around the middle of this year. This estimation is based primarily on the aforementioned statement that they hope the market will loosen up. There is little evidence the housing market is approaching a bottom, as prices are now tumbling in virtually every region of the country.

Anecdotal evidence of the challenges facing homebuilders mirrors the industry’s sentiment reading.

Banks are literally giving land away for free, but the economics of new construction are so upside down that builders are turning it down. The carrying costs – primarily fees paid to municipalities – are so high the land isn’t worth the price: Nothing.

One of the first signs of a housing turnaround will be when builders begin acquiring vacant land. Until this very modest indication of confidence is seen, the bottom will remain elusive — hope notwithstanding.

By RYAN TAYLOR

New homes sales reached record lows in January as transactions fell 10.2% from a month ago to seasonally adjusted annual rate of 309,000. This annual rate is the lowest in the history of the reading which the government started in 1963. The median sales price for new homes also fell by 9.9% to $201,000.

The sobering reality is that jobless claims are now the biggest driver of the falling homes sales. When this downturn in housing began in 2005, creative financing had allowed people with jobs to buy houses they could not afford. But even if incomes and employment were still at those 2005 levels, that same buyer pool would not be around to buy up houses at today’s “cheap” levels. Buyers at those prices no longer exist for  three basic reasons:

1) They are still trying to stay in their current home by acquiring a modification for their loan.
2) They have been foreclosed on and their credit score is below 700.
3) They no longer have a job so they cannot afford to buy a home even if they wanted to.

These facts are especially bad for new homes sales as most new developments are located far away from job centers. Since foreclosures are now prevalent throughout the country, most people are deciding to buy homes closer to their places of employment so they can avoid the long commute. Furthermore, most of the areas that are in close proximity to job centers are more established and are generally viewed as a better investment.

Those buyers looking to purchase homes in areas with new homes for sale have quite a few properties on the market to choose from. REO properties are becoming more popular purchases because they are frequently cheaper. As modifications become more prevalent, buying an REO in a neighborhood with few “For Sale” signs will be seen as less of a gamble because most struggling homeowners will find it easier to receive some mortgage relief from their servicer. Additionally, these buyers are avoiding new developments because there are not enough other buyers to suggest that the development will acquire the prosperous feel that is often advertised by the homebuilders.

Those who do have jobs can afford to be selective and, as a result, will most likely choose a home in an established neighborhood that is close to job centers. This home will rarely be a new home.

Until a publicly traded homebuilder is forced to liquidate their portfolio of homes, new home sales will remain at historically low levels.

For this week’s House of the Week, Cirios takes you on a ride to the formerly pastoral outskirts of Contra Costa County, an hour-long jaunt east from San Francisco. Brentwood, once a quiet farming town, became a poster child for the housing market’s boom and bust. Builders threw up development after development, buyers paying more and more with cheaper and cheaper loans.

Prices have fallen back to earth, but after more than a 50% decline in average sales prices, buyers are coming back into the market. Property values keep falling, but sales have been booming: In the past three months transactions are up over 300% from 12-months ago.

Address: 552 Sassafras Dr, Brentwood, CA 94513
Status: LISTED
Bedrooms: 4; Bathrooms: 4.5
Living Space: 4,678 square feet (yes, it’s that huge)
Lot Size: 21,911 square feet (0.5 acres)
List Date: 12/26/07 (421 days on market)
Original List Price: $1,200,900
Current List Price: $519,900
Elementary School API: 841 (High)
Zip Code Sales Last 3 Months (year-over-year): 331%
% Homes in Foreclosure in Zip: 9.3% (High)
% Housing Inventory for Sale in Zip: 2.6% (High)

Real Estate Agent Comment: Don’t miss out on a great opportunity to own a large home on an enormous huge lot! 4 bedrooms each with own bath! Large office with fireplace! Bonus/game room with fireplace! Large kitchen with granite counters! Great home to entertain!

(For all you aspiring agents out there, notice the perfect sentence to exclamation mark ratio of 1:1. Amazing work.)

WHAT WILL THIS HOME SELL FOR?
Post a comment below to guess!

Need more information? Please post a comment and we will get back to you.

This post first appeared on Minyanville.

Finally, housing is starting to act like a market searching for a bottom.

Well, sort of.

In former boom states like California, Arizona and Florida, distressed sales are driving the local real-estate markets. After a near-complete evaporation of buying activity last year, buyers have been brought off the sidelines by continued price declines, a glut of homes for sale, and low interest rates. Comparisons with last year are easy: Some areas are seeing activity up more than 300% year-over-year.

Many contend this is a healthy development, as prices return to more affordable levels and latent demand sops up overhanging supply. The bottom, they argue, is nigh.

However, even in areas seeing strong buying activity, median home prices continue to tumble. Banks and private sellers alike are finding the only way to guarantee a sale is to list the house below the market. This constant undercutting is pushing prices down, sometimes well below affordability levels derived from median income data.

This trend is not indicative of the capitulation most market watchers believe must happen before prices can truly bottom.

Capitulation is a concept more often reserved for equity-market analysis than for housing. Since real estate is vastly more fragmented and localized than stocks, housing trends take months, even years to develop, while equities can reverse course in a manner of days, if not hours.

Still, drilling down into individual transactions, evidence of capitulation in certain markets is becoming evident. Sellers, after 4 years of price declines, are finally throwing in the towel.

Homebuilders are becoming desperate: Toll Brothers (TOL) is trying to lure in buyers with 3.99% interest rates through a partnership with Wells Fargo (WFC). Centex (CTX) did them one better by offering rates as low as 3.25% (that rise to 4.50% after 2 years) and Pulte Homes (PHM) also offers a 3.99% fixed rate option for qualified buyers.

Banks like JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C), desperate to shed their growing inventory of foreclosed homes, are beginning to accept bids 10, 15 or even 20% below their asking prices.

And its not just banks. Just in the past few weeks, private sellers have started to jump at low-ball offers. Better to take less cash now than be constantly priced out of the market, chasing it all the way down.

Although this type of sale is still very much the exception rather than the rule, it’s an indication that sellers are becoming despondent, willing to accept any reasonable price to rid themselves of what could be months of headaches, upkeep expenses and deteriorating market conditions.

To be clear: This analysis is by no means a call that housing has bottomed, or is even remotely close to a bottom. It’s merely evidence that certain areas are closer to stabilization that others, and these signs — which may look like capitulation — should be viewed as a positive development in a market deeply in need of hope.

By RYAN TAYLOR

The Commerce Department reported a 14.7% drop in the seasonally adjusted rate of new home sales in December. Builders unloaded just 482,000 homes, the lowest number since 1982, while the median price slipped 9.3% from December 2007 to $206,500.

Tough to find a silver lining in this release, the numbers pretty much speak for themselves.

Homebuilders are literally drowning in their own supply, as ill-fated decisions to keep building through the early stages of the housing downturn are coming back to haunt the likes of Centex, Toll Brothers and Lennar. The data could not be more clear: Buyers are not willing to pay for new homes at their current prices. Nevertheless, the homebuilders, completely out of touch with reality, are begging Congress to pass legislation to encourage buyers to step back into the market.

With so many foreclosures in areas inundated with new construction, potential buyers are opting to pay far less for houses just a few years old, while the new ones sit vacant. Builders can’t lower their prices to compete at market levels, as the losses would likely put many out of business.

Which is exactly what needs to happen.

As I have written previously, there will be no bottom in the housing market — or even meaningful stabilization — until at least one, if not more of the major homebuilders goes under. The alternative, which would dramatically extend any future recovery, would be an auto industry-style bailout.

These unnecessary zombies of companies need to start feasting on one another before their industry can return to normalcy. The time for consolidation is now!