By ANDREW JEFFERY

This post first appeared on Minyanville.

Deflation, the economic beast many feared would devour the next decade, appears to have been vanquished.

Or has it?

Superficial signs of renewed inflation are everywhere: Oil prices appear to be stabilizing, and concern is growing about future supply shortages (which, by extension, could lead to higher prices at the pump). The stock market has staged an impressive rally, with expectant bulls and former bears finding for “green shoots” of economic growth everywhere. Home prices, if you look purely at the data and ignore fundamentals, are starting to slow their fantastic decline.

Even the consumer price index, or CPI, is looking tame. Well, except for last month’s drop, the largest in more than 50 years.

And herein lies the problem.

The CPI, the market’s favorite inflation gauge, has been masking the structural deflation in our midst since the housing market fell of its wheels almost 4 years ago. Given the precipitous drop in property values, one would naturally expect the housing component of the CPI to fall in kind. Not so.

The statistical alchemists, err, experts, at the Bureau of Labor Statistics use something called “owners equivalent rent,” OER, to measure consumer housing expenses. OER tries to approximate the cost to rent the country’s typical home, and according to the Wall Street Journal makes up 24% of the CPI and 31% of the core CPI, which backs out food and energy costs.

And since even as property values have slid in record-breaking fashion rents remained buoyant, OER has vastly understated the drop in home prices. This means the CPI — were it to reflect some sort of economic reality — would have fallen more than it actually has.

As the housing slump rolls on, the pain is increasingly being felt by landlords, not just owner occupiers. Rents in big cities like New York and San Francisco are already dropping, as would-be tenants demand concessions from property owners. Vacancies are increasing, as even those driven from the housing market by foreclosures and the tight mortgage market can’t fill up empty apartments, condos and track homes.

Drive around suburbia and “For Rent” signs are nearly as common as “For Sale” signs.

Rents are likely to keep falling and as a result, OER could begin to drag down the CPI. Of course, statisticians can and likely will play games with adjustments for volatile energy prices (renters often don’t pay for utilities, so energy costs are backed out of OER). Further, government bean counters are even considering adapting OER to reflect new, high levels of home ownership (just in time for a reversion to the historic mean, thanks for being ahead of the curve guys).

As long as construing economic data in a way that makes it seem more likely for effectively insolvent financial institutions like Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) to raise capital and remain in business, that will remain the status quo.

Meanwhile, back in reality, saving is now en vogue, deleveraging is ongoing and the repayment (and destruction) of dollar-denominated debt will keep inflation in check for the foreseeable future. More importantly, the recognition that smaller can be better and less can be more are becoming entrenched in the lives of ordinary Americans.

Don’t believe the hype: Deflation isn’t going away any time soon.

By ANDREW JEFFERY

This post first appeared on Minyanville.

In recent months, headlines have been popping up noting that rents – finally – are beginning to follow home prices into the abyss.

Since the housing market began to crumble, would-be homeowners were forced to become renters, keeping demand for rental units relatively strong even as home prices fell. Now, however, as landlords convert condos into rentals, supply is beginning to move in tenants’ favor.

And while this is welcome news for millions of renters around the country, its impact on consumer price measurements could materially impact mounting deflation expectations.

The reason can be found in the nuances of how the US Bureau of Labor Statistics measures the Consumer Price Index, or CPI. The CPI is the most widely quoted gauge of inflation, it being the easiest to explain to the consuming public. Tally up a basket of commonly purchased items, see how their prices compared to last month, then last year and voila! consumer prices at your fingertips.

In realty, of course, it’s a bit more complicated: Just take a gander at this sophomoric equation from a recent CPI release:

Riiiiiiiiiight.

The most heavily weighted item in the CPI is something known as Owners’ Equivalent Rent, or OER, which accounts for almost 24% of the total index. OER is the government bean counters’ preferred method for measuring the cost of owner occupied housing, calculated by figuring out how much the median homeowner in the country would have to pay to rent his or her family’s dwelling.

Many observers, Minyanville’s Professor Mish Shedlock included, believe the CPI has been understating inflation for years by ignoring housing prices. Now, that rents are beginning to fall, however, inflation readings could become dire.

As Professor Kevin Depew noted last week, the December CPI registered the lowest inflation reading since 1980. And while most media outlets touted the effect of dramatically lower energy prices, OER is quietly reversing a long-standing trend and contributing to the decline.

Examining the data, available on the BLS’ website, OER has been steadily trending upwards for years. Even though the housing market peaked in late 2005, OER rose in 2006, 2007 and even 2008. The rate of change, however, is slowing. Notably, in December 2008, OER rose just 0.08% from November, breaking from the rest of the year’s trend.

And while 1 month does not a trend make, the data support stories from Manhattan to Los Angeles of landlords giving in to thrifty tenants shopping for the best deal. With mounting job losses and weak economic conditions persisting, this will be an important trend to watch in coming months. Property liquidations by big banks like Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) will add to housing supply, further pressuring rents.

CPI data matter, despite their myriad of potential problems, because of their effect on inflation expectations - or in this case, deflation expectations.

Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Ben Bernanke, are wary of these expectations because they represent future consumer behavior. In a speech last summer, as energy prices rose to all-time highs, Bernanke said “Some indicators of longer-term inflation expectations have risen in recent months, which is a significant concern for the Federal Reserve.”

Fearful of higher prices in the future, consumers increase buying now, spurring demand and pushing prices up even further. The same is true the other way. If the public thinks prices will keep falling, they will delay purchases, waiting for a better deal down the road. This weakens aggregate demand, accelerating price declines.

So as rents, the largest component of the CPI, continue to fall, pricing measurements are likely to signal deflation, even as conventional wisdom calls for hyperinflation. And as a deflationist attitude gains currency, social mood continues to darken, and consumerism is shunned, lower prices will ultimately become a self-fulfilling prophecy.