Posts Tagged ‘RYL’

Keepin’ It Real Estate: Homebuilders Facing Extinction

Thursday, November 20th, 2008

By ANDREW JEFFERY

For as bad as things are in the housing market, it’s remarkable that none of the country’s big homebuilders have gone bust. The industry’s resilience is a testament to how much money the firms raked in during the boom.

Just ask guys in charge.

The Wall Street Journal reports many homebuilder CEOs socked away such obscene amounts of cash over the past 5 years that they out-earned their Wall Street counterparts. As profits soared, Toll Brothers (TOL) CEO Robert Toll and his brother Bruce together took home $773 million, while Dwight Schar, chairman of Virginia-based NVR (NVR) earned more than $625 million from stock sales.

By contrast, vilified Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo earned a mere $471 million during the same period.

Sitting on huge — but dwindling — stockpiles of cash, big builders like DR Horton (DHI), Lennar (LEN) and Ryland Homes (RYL) have thus far ridden out the bloodletting. According to JPMorgan analyst Michael Rehaut, these 3 may yet see positive cash flow in 2009.

Their smaller rivals, however, may not be so lucky.

Rehaut predicts that Pulte Home (PHM) and KB Home (KBH) could see negative cash flow next year – and some analysts believe 2009 could finally be the year that weaker hands start to fold. Credit protection for Hovnanian (HOV), Standard Pacific (SPF) and Beazer Home (BZH) is trading like the companies’ failure is a foregone conclusion.

Meanwhile, one key characteristic of market bottoms is notably absent: Consolidation.

Just as strong American banks have swallowed up the weak, no meaningful housing market bottom will be found until homebuilders begin to feast on one another.

Let’s face it: We don’t need 10 different multi-billion dollar companies churning out indistinguishable cookie-cutter ”mansions” on tiny lots in cramped subdivisions miles from the nearest grocery store. We’ve got our hands full already, thank you very much.

Yesterday, the Commerce Department said October housing starts registered the lowest reading since 1959. Since just 4 of the 10 builders mentioned in this article existed 50 years ago, it looks like 6 are pretty much dispensable.

Gas Prices Effects On the Home

Wednesday, July 16th, 2008

This post first appeared on Minyanville.

I came upon an interesting report out from Deutsche Bank on the effect high gas prices are having on home prices. Below are some highlights:

  • Gas prices are up 167% in the last five years, 32% in the last year.
  • Monthly gas expenditure is up to $519 in June ’08 from $173 in June ’02.
  • $54,000 in home price purchasing power has been lost in the last five years; $22,000 in the last year alone (Inland Empire, CA is the worst at 46% lost in the last five years).
  • As measured by increased monthly expenses and translated into mortgage payment terms, the impact of rising gas prices is equivalent to a 2.47% increase in mortgage rates over the last five years; 0.98% in the last year (Inland Empire is again the worst at a 4.35% effective increase over five years).
  • Deutsche sees non-bubble areas like Texas and the South more exposed to gas price increases than bubble states, due to long commute distances and low relative home prices.
  • Homebuilders are being negatively effected by this trend, particularly in developments far away from the city center.
  • Builders will likely switch strategies and focus on urban “infill” and closer-in townhome projects.
  • According to Deutsche, Meritage Homes (MTH), Ryland (RYL) and Lennar (LEN) have the most exposure to highly impacted areas; MDC Holdings (MDC), NVR (NVR) and Toll Brothers (TOL) have the lowest exposure.