If you bought a house in February, it’s a 50/50 bet you picked up a foreclosure.

The National Association of Realtors released data this morning indicating almost half of all transactions last month involved a bank owned home. Sales jumped 5.1% from January, to an annualized rate of 4.72 million. Prices, however, continued to decline as first time home buyers snapped up foreclosed houses on the cheap. Prices slid 15.5% compared to last year, the second biggest drop on record, according to Bloomberg.

This price drop, however, also reflects the mix of homes being sold, not just declining property values. What the heck does that mean? Find out here.

Of note, volatility continues in the Northeast. Last month, Cirios readers will remember we pointed out that sales dropped by a whopping 14% month-over-month. In February, the Northeast saw a strong rebound, with transactions up 15.6%. So, we’re about back to where we were at the beginning of the year.

The lesson here is illustrative of the dangerous of relying on monthly data, which can be significantly impacted by short-term affects like weather or government intervention.

So, be skeptical about the resounding calls for a bottom in housing pundits are likely to glean from this one, better than expected data point. Stay tuned for next month’s release when we find out if, as the saying goes, one month does not a trend make.