Posts Tagged ‘treasury’

Bailout Treats Symptoms, Not Disease

Monday, September 29th, 2008

This post first appeared on Minyanville and our sister site Dawn Patrol.

The bailout is done! Time to breathe a sigh of relief.

Or is it?

As details emerge about the financial bailout package that was jammed through Congress over 10 days of political theater at its most nauseating, there’s still a striking omission from the plan to right American’s economic ship.

The failure of bureaucrats and regulators to propose a realistic solution for the foreclosure problem is emblematic of their inability to treat the root cause of an issue, focusing instead on simply applying band-aids to the visible symptoms.

The bailouts of Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE), and AIG (AIG) all claimed to remove the cancer – but all they did was hasten the patient’s demise.

Treasury’s plan will deliver money into the banking system to sop up toxic assets sitting on the balance sheets of our financial institutions. This is a necessary — albeit unfortunate — step, but it still doesn’t address the root of the rot: Milions of homes are worth less than the outstanding balance of the owner’s mortgage.

Billions of dollars in negative equity are destroying Main Street’s balance sheet even as it devours Wall Street, eroding the value of the very securities Taxpayers are about to start buying.

As long as Washington tries to fight foreclosures with ineffective loan modification programs that simply prolong the problems, foreclosures will continue to set records. Modifying a mortgage for someone who is barely scraping by is sort of like rescuing him from the side of a cliff, only to leave him on the edge, dangling by one arm.

Foreclosures are often blamed for spiraling home prices and the resulting collapse in value of securities tied to the mortgages used to buy those houses. According to Bloomberg, the government’s aid package is designed to support “financial companies reeling from the record number of home foreclosures.”

Foreclosures don’t cause houses to lose their value. Foreclosures happen when a home loses value such that it’s worth less than the mortgage used to buy it, and the homeowner can’t sell or refinance if his interest payments become overwhelming.

Defaults become delinquencies, which become foreclosures, which become evictions, which become repossessions, which flood the market, depressing prices as supply outstrips demand.

Back in what seems like ancient history, when home prices only went up, banks weren’t too concerned with defaults, since homeowners could almost always sell themselves out of a problem. Foreclosures stayed low because the liquid, appreciating housing market bailed out troubled homeowners on its own. That’s part of the reason the industry is so ill-equipped to handle the scope of the current problem: it never had to before.

But now, with so many borrowers underwater — owing more on their house than it’s worth — defaults result in not only eventual liquidation of the property, but profound distress in the homeowner’s life and real losses for investors. Furthermore, delinquent borrowers are less inclined to pay for upkeep or security, and many foreclosed homes are seriously damaged by the time a bank is able to take possession of it.

Being underwater is debilitating. To sell, not only does a homeowner have to pay a Realtor 6% whether he gets a raw deal or not, but he has to pay the bank the difference between where his home sells and the outstanding balance of his loan.

For many who have seen the value of their homes fall hundreds of thousands of dollars, this is an impossibility. Most homeowners, once they’re upside down, just want to stay in their homes.

A more effective plan to curb foreclosures would require an independent reviewer to evaluate each delinquent mortgage, determine the borrower’s ability to pay going forward and the amount, if any, of negative equity that needs to be destroyed to bring the loan amount back under the home’s value.

Since the notion that buying Wall Street’s toxic assets will result in windfall profits is a willfully distributed fallacy aimed at getting the public on board for the bailout, Taxpayers would be well-served dumping money into a blender that’s at least in their own backyard.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown recently proposed a similar plan, where the government will buy delinquent mortgages from banks for the outstanding balance of the loan. The home is then rented to the existing tenant or a new one and managed by a local housing association.

The government would absorb the difference between the loan amount and the resale value, which would hasten increase sales activity, clearing out the glut of homes listed too high for the simple reason that the owner can’t afford to sell at a lower price.

This type of personalized bailout, unfortunately, reeks of moral hazard. Many individuals who made bad financial decisions will get to keep their homes, albeit without actual ownership. But the current socialization of our free markets is simply moral hazard be design, so if Congress is so hell-bent on bailing out Wall Street, why not share the spoils with Main Street.

If Congress wants this bailout to help the American people and keep the financial system in tact, a sizable portion of the funds should be directed at fixing the asset that’s at the center of this turmoil: the residential property.

Home prices need to come down further. They will come down further. It’s only a matter of time. We can either let home prices bleed down, slowly eroding the value of the securities they support and violently uprooting families, or the government can plug the hole.

Washington Mutual (WM) is already off the field, as JP Morgan (JPM) continues to play widowmaker for the financial system. Wachovia (WB) isn’t likely to remain independent for long. The sooner the rebuilding process begins, the better.

This crisis, and the resulting ebb and flow of what remains of the free market has already tipped the scales, started us sliding down a path of deflation in everything from stock prices, to cereal boxes, soda bottles, not to mention homes.

This is a good development. The hardest lesson Americans will learn from this crisis, should learn from this crisis, is that sometimes it’s necessary to live within our means. There is virtue in simplicity. More is not always better. Bigger is not always better. Sometimes, amazingly enough, less is often better.

This progress is the only true way we’ll make it out of this mess.

Morgan Stanley Latest Band-Aid Over Fannie, Freddie’s Bullet Hole

Wednesday, August 6th, 2008

This post first appeared on Minyanville and our sister site Dawn Patrol.

It looks like all those short-sellers might have been on to something.

Freddie Mac (FRE), the beleaguered mortgage giant that was just weeks ago on the brink of collapse, released second quarter results this morning that were nothing short of abysmal. Along with the financial backing of you, me and all the other US taxpayers, the government-sponsored enterprise now has:

  • $831 million loss or $1.63 per share, compared with net income of $729 million a year ago.
  • Revenue fell 28% to $1.69 billion compared to last year.
  • $2.5 billion in credit loss provisions and $1 billion in mortgage-related writedowns.
  • Board approval to slash dividends from $0.25 per share to “$0.05 or less”.
  • The intention to raise $5.5 billion or more in fresh capital.

Although the company currently meets capital requirements demanded by its regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, it may fall below those levels if the housing and credit markets continue to deteriorate.

Last month, shares plunged on fears that Freddie and its larger cousin Fannie Mae (FNM) would crumble under the weight of mounting losses in their massive mortgage portfolios. The Treasury Department tried to shore up confidence by demanding Congressional approval to support the 2 companies, should the need arise.

Treasury announced this week it had hired Morgan Stanley (MS) to help sort out the mess and assess the two companies’ financial positions.

It takes a very active imagination to think a company capitalized with just $37 billion to support more than $2 trillion in U.S. mortgage debt is anything resembling stable.

Although Fannie and Freddie managed to avoid buying the worst of the subprime mortgages originated during the housing boom, many equally toxic Alt-A and other non-prime loans made it onto their balance sheets. Even marginally savvy originators were able to exploit their automated underwriting and risk systems, resulting in the loss of billions of dollars from questionable loans.

Fannie and Freddie are now paying for their transgressions – or rather, the American taxpayer is paying, since Congress gave Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson what amounts to a blank check to bail out the two failed companies.

The only questions left are: When will Fannie and Freddie collapse, and what form will they take thereafter?

Many advocate for privatization, splitting the firms into several publicly traded companies. Others, mindful of the Federal government’s tendency to privatize profits and socialize losses, expect outright nationalization.

One near-certainty, irrespective of the outcome of their current crisis, is that Fannie and Freddie’s ability to keep mortgages rates artificially low will be greatly reduced. That doesn’t bode well for anyone considering buying a house in the next 20 years.