Posts Tagged ‘washington’

R.I.P. Free Credit

Tuesday, May 19th, 2009

By ANDREW JEFFERY

This post first appeared on Minyanville.

Remember the good old days? Back when you and the credit crunch were young, and only those “subprime” people over on the other side of town — you know, the ones living wildly beyond their means, dependent on credit for the very necessities of life — had to deal with the harsh reality of life without free and easy credit?

Those happier times are long since passed, as the malaise continues to seep its way up the economic spectrum. Now, even the most creditworthy consumers who haven’t missed a payment in years are seeing credit lines cut, interest rates raised and finding it increasingly difficult to get a mortgage. They’d better get used to it – the free lunch is over.

Up in Washington, where economic rationale and populist rhetoric seem to be more mutually exclusive than ever these days, the Senate is voting on a widely debated new set of rules for the credit card industry.

According to the New York Times, although the legislation doesn’t cap the rates companies like Capital One (COF) and American Express (AXP) can charge their customers, they’ll be forced to up rates more slowly — and with more disclosure — meanwhile making it tougher to impose late fees on borrowers that can’t keep up. This will reduce lenders’ earning power, not to mention their inclination to give out credit lines to questionable borrowers.

While risky borrowers will bear the brunt of late fees, over-limit charges and slashed credit lines, the well-to-do are in for the biggest shock. Banks are considering curtailing or doing away entirely with rewards programs, grace periods before interest charges kick in and accounts without annual fees. Gone are the days when paying your bills on time was a path to free credit.

The country’s biggest banks, JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) have already told Congress the new rules will force them to limit credit availability and increase fees. While this may bode well for profit margins in the near term, not so for the broader economy.

In light of the financial implosion wrought by too much debt supported by not enough real income, it’s hard to argue credit card companies shouldn’t be a bit less free-wheeling when handing out plastic. But analysts are quick to point out that paring down consumer credit will have a dastardly effect on our consumption-based economy.

For a country whose economy is two-thirds consumer spending, and whose consumer is (still) addicted to credit, the new legislation is like pumping the economy full of Xanex – everything will just slow down.

And while in the long run, less dependence on cheap and easy credit will help prevent the sorts of credit crisis like the one we’re experiencing right now, we’ll likely look back with 20/20 hindsight and say this legislation went too far, constricted credit too much. This is a shame, since before Congress even cooked up the idea of the new rules, the natural deleveraging cycle was already restricting credit on its own.

Debt isn’t in and of itself, bad. As Minyanville’s Kevin Depew wrote today, “real lending and economic activity will only improve when real savers see real value at the right level of risk. That will only occur in the short-run with vastly lower prices, or in the long run with stagnant prices and the benefit of time.” Indeed.

Credit allows a transfer of risk from those who want to take it, but can’t, to those who can take it, but need to be appropriately compensated for putting their cash on the line. This can foster healthy economic growth – when used properly.

That day will come again, but that day isn’t today.

Freddie Blows Through Another $35 Billion

Monday, January 26th, 2009

By ANDREW JEFFERY

This post first appeared on Minyanville.

$100 billion just isn’t what it used to be.

Over the weekend, Freddie Mac (FRE) requested a second draw on its Treasury Department credit facility, saying $30-35 billion would suffice to keep its net worth above zero, thank you very much. After taking $14 billion in the third quarter of last year, Freddie has now chewed through almost half its $100 billion taxpayer-provided safety net in just 5 months.

According to Bloomberg, Freddie’s fourth -quarter operating losses triggered the need for additional funds, as its massive mortgage portfolio continues to sour. Analysts expect Freddie’s sister company, Fannie Mae (FNM), to request a similar draw when it announces fourth-quarter results in February.

As one analyst told Bloomberg, “[Fannie and Freddie’s] losses are going to be much higher than anyone anticipated. The more and more that people are digging into these portfolios, they’re finding out the more and more these guys were doing subprime and Alt-A loans and classifying them as prime.”

Defaults on prime mortgages, which are supposed to be given out to borrowers with good credit and stable jobs, are now increasing at a faster rate than the subprime loans that get so much headline play. According to the latest Mortgage Bankers Association Delinquency Survey, 2.87% of all prime loans were delinquent in the third quarter of last year, up 85% from the same period a year ago.

Keep in mind those figures are through September 2008 and don’t include the abysmal economic conditions of the past 4 months. And as layoffs mount and the economy continues to contract, the previously well-to-do are facing the same economic hardships those “subprime” people have been dealing with for almost 2 years.

Fannie and Freddie, despite not technically being involved in subprime lending, drove industry trends, and, in many ways, set precedents followed by the rest of the mortgage industry. Their drive to automate the loan underwriting process created massive opportunities for fraud. Both savvy and ignorant originators easily duped the system, jamming subprime borrowers into prime loans, which neatly showed up on bank balance sheets as AAA-rated assets.

The sieve-like automated systems were adopted by other big lenders, such as Countrywide, Washington Mutual, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, IndyMac and Wachovia.

Now that none of those firms exist, loans originated under the guise of “prime” are turning out to be anything but. Bank of America (BAC), JPMorgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC), heretofore the strongest banks in the country, who absorbed many of those defunct lenders, are now faced with mounting losses on loans they thought were of the highest quality.

As I noted about this time last year, while everyone was so focused on subprime, prime mortgages — a market about 4 times as large — quietly presented a far bigger threat to the financial system. Now, as the government has bailed out 2 of the 4 remaining big American banks, those loans threaten the federal balance sheet.

Where’s TARP 2 when you need it?